Zach Thompson details his top home run props for Monday night, spotlighting Lenyn Sosa, Will Smith, and Ramon Laureano.

After a fun Players’ Weekend that included some very meaningful series, the MLB is back to work this Monday with another jam-packed slate. The Brewers and Cubs will try to get in a doubleheader at Wrigley, with the second game part of the eight-game main MLB DFS slate, with four games in the early wave just before 7:00 p.m. ET. With 24 teams on the board this evening, there are plenty of juicy home run props in play, including Coors Field, of course. After looking at the matchups, environments, odds, and current form of the players on the board this Monday night, my favorite home run props are from Lenyn Sosa, Will Smith, and Ramon Laureano.

Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider that can point us in the right direction, these picks remain volatile plays.

Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. I typically play home run props in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.

Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Monday.

Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook

Lenyn Sosa to record 1+ home runs (+500)

We’re poking the bear a little bit with these home run props by going against Spencer Strider, but the odds are especially long as a result of the matchup. Sosa and the White Sox are in Atlanta to face the Braves, who are coming off a road sweep of the Guardians as they give the ball to Strider on Monday.

Strider hasn’t been as dominant this season, with a 4.69 ERA and 4.48 FIP while going 5-for-10 and battling multiple injuries. He has given up a 42.9% hard-hit rate and 10.4% barrel rate with 15 homers against him in 16 starts. He has gone 1-3 in his last four starts with 18 runs allowed in 18 2/3 innings, including seven home runs. Righties have hit .259 against him with a .344 wOBA, and nine of the 15 homers against him this season have been at home at Truist Park.

Sosa will be on the strong side of those splits against Strider and typically hits near the top of the order for the White Sox, giving him extra at-bats. In his last 12 games, Sosa has smashed five home runs and posted a 22.2% barrel rate to go with a 52.8% hard-hit rate. His most recent homer was Sunday in Kansas City, where he also hit this 400-footer on Friday.

Of his career-high 16 homers, 13 have come against righties like Strider, and exactly half have come on the road. Sosa has a .277 batting average and .331 wOBA against righties.

The 25-year-old has proven he can be part of the White Sox rebuild, and I love the value in his home run props on Monday.

Alexander has hit three of his four homers against righties and three of his four homers on the road. While facing Senzatela is a righty-righty matchup, righties have had better power production against Senzatela than lefties.

Senzatela has gone 4-for-14 in his 22 games this season with a 7.34 ERA and 5.70 FIP. He has served up 19 homers, and righties have hit 11 of those 19 home runs in just 45% of plate appearances on that side of the split.

Alexander is moving up to second in the order with Ketel Marte getting the day off, and hitting between Geraldo Perdomo and Corbin Carroll should set him up for success for this long shot in Sunday afternoon’s home run props.

Will Smith to record 1+ home runs (+310)

Coors Field always deserves attention when its on the slate, and even with sinker-specialist Kyle Freeland on the mound, there are some home run props to consider in Denver. Shohei Ohtani (+155) is always a good play but his odds are too short for me this Monday, so I’m rolling with Will Smith instead.

Smith is a strong option against lefties, although most of his homers have come at Dodger Stadium this season. He has hit .267 with a .375 wOBA and 143 wRC+ against southpaws, though, and he has a good specific history against Kyle Freeland, going 6-for-20 with a home run in their previous meetings.

Smith has 15 homers on the year, including three in his last 20 games.

On the other side of the matchup, Freeland has given up 16 homers in his 22 starts, and righties have hit 15 of those homers with a .309 batting average and .365 wOBA.

In his career at Coors, Smith has six homers and 30 RBI in 31 games. Getting him at over +300 makes him a solid option in Monday’s home run props, and a good way to get exposure to that Coors Field elevation.

Ramon Laureano to record 1+ home runs (+360)

The Padres were on the bad end of a sweep at the hands of Will Smith’s Dodgers over the weekend, and they’ll look to bounce back on Monday by coming home and taking on the struggling Giants. I highlighted Nestor Cortes as my favorite MLB DFS bargain pitcher, and I’ll take Laureano to go yard in my home run props as another successful addition at the Trade Deadline.

Laureano has hit a blistering .339 since joining San Diego, with three doubles, two triples and four home runs. Three of those home runs have come in his last four games, and he’s 9-for-18 (.500) over his last five contests with a 53.3% hard-hit rate.

Laureano and the Padres will take on lefty Robbie Ray on Monday night, and Laureano is 7-for-12 against the veteran in their past meetingw with three doubles and a home run. Between his time with the Orioles and Padres, Laureano has hit 19 homers this season, including seven off of lefties like Ray.

Ray has put together a solid season in San Francisco, going 9-6 in 25 starts with a 2.98 ERA and 3.73 FIP. However, he has still given up 17 homers, including five in his last six starts, in which he is 0-3 with a 4.11 ERA. Righties have hit 15 of those 17 homers and have a .292 wOBA against him on the season.

Laureano will look to stay hot against Ray and help the Padres bounce back from their sweep as they come home and look to get back on track.