The Minnesota Twins have been barreling downhill for a while now. The failed expectations is exactly why Derek Falvey felt compelled to act as a seller during the trade deadline. Of course with a gutted roster, things haven’t gotten much better.
Those unmet expectations are tied to plenty of players still in the organization. Jose Miranda is making of home of Triple-A, while Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach, and even Royce Lewis squander away growth potential in the big leagues.
Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
Lewis has been the most disappointing of the bunch. Once with an arrow pointing straight up, he has struggled for a season-and-a-half, and things are reaching a boiling point.
Advertisement
Related Headlines
Royce Lewis hurting present worrying about future for MN Twins
Things have not gone well for Royce Lewis this season. He owns a .233/.293/.378 slash line, and the ball simply hasn’t travelled for him. The frustrations reached a boiling point to the extent he told The Athletic’s Dan Hayes he’s playing for his future.
“It’s also hard to make a full in-season adjustment because you can try that, and those 30 games or at-bats of trial go toward your stats. Do you really want to sacrifice that? And if it doesn’t work, then you go back to what you were doing before. It’s always hard. I know (Michael) Harris (II) just did a significant change. Being under contract probably helps because he knows what he’s making that year and the year after. For someone like me, I’m fighting (to take) care of myself and my family. I don’t want to put any of those stats in jeopardy. I’m trying to do what’s best as fast as possible. But feeling like I’ve been on an island, it’s kind of tough.”
This season was the first year that Royce Lewis has made more than $1 million during his career. His first-year arbitration salary came in at $1.63 million. Prior to that, he has earned the major league minimum, and his lone substantial payday was a $6.725 million bonus in 2017 as the first overall pick.
Advertisement
Knowing that numbers dictate arbitration raises, it’s understandable that Lewis would be chasing individual statistics. Unfortunately the individual statistics this year aren’t good, and he’s in an ugly and fruitless cycle.
The one-time prolific power hitter has just seven home runs. He owns an 83 OPS+ and the 0.6 fWAR is largely propped up by now good defense.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Lewis has seemingly been getting unlucky. He has just a .255 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). His expected metrics are all better than the actual results as well (xBA .263, xSLG .431, xwOBA .326). The inputs remain solid as well. The average exit velocity is in line with career norms, and his 42.5% hard-hit rate is a career-best. Also notable is that his strikeout-rate is down to a near-career best 16.1%.
It’s understandable that Lewis may want a level of future certainty, but it’s also a sliding scale of what he’d like to give up. If the Twins were to offer him a deal right now, buying out his arbitration and a free agency year or two, they’d be doing so with the player at diminished production.
Advertisement
Related: MN Twins Set to Debut New Pitching Acquisitions
Lewis is 26 years old and under team control through 2028. If he rebounds and plays well going forward, a $100 million-plus contract will be a reality. If he wants to sacrifice that opportunity for immediate certainty, something like a four-year deal in the $30-40 million range is probably where Minnesota should be at.
Fixing Royce Lewis now the MN Twins focus
Beyond just reining Lewis back in to focus on the present, the Minnesota Twins have to right what has been a sinking ship. Of course his grand slam against the Chicago White Sox on Friday night is a good start. They have to get buy in from the player though, and then let hitting coach Matt Borgschulte get to work.
“I feel like I’m kind of on an island and trying to figure it out on my own. I haven’t felt comfortable all year. I wish I did. If I did, I think my numbers would be totally different. I’m just looking for comfort in the box. I don’t feel like I was going good at all this year. It’s a lot easier when things are going well. You know, there’s ups and downs. When things are not going your way and you hit one good and that doesn’t go your way, it’s frustrating.”
Royce Lewis – The Athletic
“The biggest thing, I think, for every hitter, whether it’s worrying about arbitration or free agency or whatever the case is for the future, is getting the focus to be on doing what you can do today to set yourself up for success and staying within this day. We’ll just focus on the moment, focus on preparation, make sure you’re doing everything in the weight room, in the cage, in your prep to give yourself the best opportunity for success.”
Matt Borgschulte – The Athletic
The groundwork is there for a player that knows he has something to work on. He has a committed coach trying to get the most out of him as well. The tweaks are something he should probably lean into given the results are where they are. It seems like that may finally be coming to a head.
For a guy that has been at the pinnacle of the baseball world individually, it’s odd to think that confidence is something that alludes him. However, Lewis is a human being that deals with struggles just like everyone else.
Advertisement
Related: Report: Twins Players Growing Frustrated with Organization
The more that Minnesota can prop him up and support him, the greater chance there is that trusts builds towards a goal of accepted growth. The direction of the franchise isn’t something that has been clear of late, but Lewis can work to cement himself as a key cog during the final month of the season.
Related Headlines