The Philadelphia Phillies (76-54) and New York Mets (69-61) begin a 3-game NL East series Monday. First pitch from Citi Field in Queens, New York, is set for 7:10 p.m ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets leads 4-2

The Phillies secured a series win Sunday with a 3-2 victory over the Washington Nationals, cashing as -241 home favorites as the Under (10) hit. SP Ranger Suárez (7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 11 K) picked up his 10th win. C Rafael Marchan provided all of Philadelphia’s offense, driving in 3 runs with a double and a bases-loaded walk. The Phillies have won 6 of their last 7 games and lead the Mets by 7 games.

The Mets closed their 6-game road trip with a 3-3 mark after losing 4-3 to the Braves Sunday as -130 favorites as the Under (9.5) cashed. 3B Mark Vientos provided an early boost with a 2-run homer in the second, but RP Gregory Soto took the loss after giving up 2 runs in the eighth innings of a tied game.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. RHP Kodai Senga

Sanchez (11-4, 2.46 ERA) is making his 26th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 157 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 12 K in 6-4 victory against the Seattle Mariners Tuesday2025 road stats: 6-4, 2.54 ERA (85 IP, 24 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 14 startsLast start vs. Mets: Loss, 2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 5-1 home defeat April 22Career vs. Mets: 2-3, 3.89 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 10 games (7 starts)

Senga (7-5, 2.58 ERA) is making his 21st start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 104 2/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER (5 R), 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 5-4 loss at the Washington Nationals Wednesday2025 home stats: 5-1, 2.50 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 in 10 startsCareer vs. Phillies: 1-1, 1.46 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.73 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 in 2 starts; last in 2023

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Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:14 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Mets +1.5 (-170)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)Phillies at Mets picks and predictionsPrediction

Mets 6, Phillies 3

BET METS (+105).

The Mets return home Monday, and it couldn’t come at a better time. They’ve been a completely different team at Citi Field, boasting a 41-24 home record compared to their road struggles (28-37).

The Phillies remain one of the league’s top clubs, but they haven’t been quite as sharp on the road, hitting 36 points lower away from home. Sánchez is 1-2 in his last 3 road starts, allowing 8 ER in 18 2/3 innings. That sets up an opportunity for the Mets, who are 19-17 against left-handed pitching.

Senga, meanwhile, has been excellent against Philadelphia in his 2 career starts against them, allowing just 1 earned run in each. With the Mets 7 games back in the NL East, but fighting to maintain position in the Wild Card race, this is a pivotal series. The Phillies may be on cruise control, but New York has plenty to play for at home.

PASS.

Don’t play around with the run line, take the Mets to win at home Monday night.

BET OVER 8 (-105).

This total feels a little too low given the pitching matchup, and the trends lean heavily toward the Over. It has cashed in 6 of the last 10 meetings between these teams and is 4-2-1 in Philadelphia’s last 7 games. The Mets have also gone Over in 3 of their last 4 contests. On top of that, Sánchez has seen the Over hit in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Over looks like the stronger play here.

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