As the Twins take on the Blue Jays this week, it feels like the perfect time to revisit the curious case of David Popkins. Less than a year ago, he was dismissed as the Twins’ hitting coach, packaged with assistant Rudy Hernandez as the lone fall guys for Minnesota’s late-season collapse. The front office made it clear they believed a change in the hitting staff and the team’s hitting philosophy was the fix. Today, Popkins is in Toronto, where he’s helping lead one of the best offenses in baseball. Meanwhile, the Twins’ bats have only gotten worse.
Popkins’ track record in Minnesota wasn’t nearly as disastrous as his firing might suggest. From 2022 to 2024, the Twins ranked 13th in runs scored, 10th in OPS, seventh in home runs. Yes, they struck out a lot, at 23.4%, which was the 11th-highest rate in baseball. A power-heavy offense, sure, but not an incompetent one. When Popkins was let go and Matt Borgschulte was brought in, the Twins announced a shift: less boom-or-bust, more “classic” hitting, with fewer strikeouts and more balls slapped the other way.
The result? Minnesota’s strikeout rate has dropped slightly, to 22.3%. But their actual production has cratered. They rank 24th in runs scored, 21st in OPS, and 14th in home runs. The power is down, the runs are down, and the offense is far less threatening than it was under Popkins. Clearly, the problems that doomed the 2024 Twins went beyond the hitting coach.
In Toronto, Popkins has wasted no time proving his value. The Blue Jays offense, which had been mediocre the past few seasons, has become one of the best in baseball. They now strike out less than anyone in the league, at 17.4%. They rank fourth in OPS, eighth in runs scored, and third in wRC+, a stat that adjusts for league and park effects. Under Popkins, the Blue Jays have transformed from middling to dangerous.
It’s not fair to suggest that Popkins is solely responsible for Toronto’s surge, just as it wasn’t fair for him to be the scapegoat in Minnesota. Coaching matters, but so does talent. The Blue Jays have stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer, players who can elevate any philosophy, while the Twins bet on continuity with a roster that may simply not have enough offensive firepower. But the optics are undeniable: the team that fired Popkins got worse, and the team that hired him got better.
This all points back to an uncomfortable truth for the Twins. They tried to fix a structural problem with a cosmetic change. Instead of reshaping the roster or rethinking their broader approach, they fired a coach and sold it as the solution. Now, with another season of offensive futility, they are right back where they were: searching for answers that go much deeper than a hitting coach.
With a few days of staring across at him in the opposing dugout ahead, it’s hard not to wonder if the Twins let a good one get away—if they just never gave him the right roster to succeed.
What do you think? Did Minnesota misfire in making Popkins the scapegoat, or was he simply never the right fit for this team? And with another year of offensive disappointment, should the front office be looking at the roster, the coaching staff, or both?