Stan Son takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for Tuesday’s game between the Royals and White Sox.

This is the second contest of a three-game series in Chicago between the White Sox and visiting Kansas City Royals.

Michael Lorenzen is scheduled to pitch for Kansas City, while Martin Perez is slated to start for Chicago.

Royals at White Sox prediction, preview

Michael Lorenzen is known as Mehchael Lorenzen on the streets. He’s not great in any category or stat, but he’s not terrible in any either. Through 108 innings, the ERA is 4.50, supported by a 4.42 FIP. The K/9 is under 8, BB/9 is under 3, and the HR/9 sits at 1.42. Like I said: meh. Average exit velocity is 89.3 mph, barrel rate is 8%, and hard-hit rate is 39.3%. Meh, meh, and meh. Swinging strike rate is 10.3%, and the chase rate is 26.8%. Two more mehs.

Lorenzen has been slightly better against righties—except for the fact that 10 of the 17 home runs he’s allowed have come off the bats of right-handed hitters. He’s also been slightly better on the road.

In 20 starts, Lorenzen has allowed more than three earned runs six times. He’s gone at least six innings in eight of them. Lorenzen has faced Chicago twice this season. Back in early June on the road, he went six innings, walked two, and struck out seven while allowing two earned runs on one hit. Two starts ago at home, he went four innings, walked two, and struck out three without allowing an earned run on three hits. That said, he’s failed to get out of the fourth inning in three of his last four starts.

Against right-handed pitching, the White Sox strike out at the 15th-highest rate while owning the 29th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 29th in MLB.

Martin Pérez has made five starts since returning from injury. In those 28.2 innings, the control has unsurprisingly been off, with 13 total walks. He’s only allowed one home run. The ERA is 2.51, while the FIP is a bit higher at 3.15. His fastball velocity is averaging 89.7 mph—the lowest of his career, and the first time it’s dipped below 90. The chase rate is a paltry 19.4%, and the barrel rate is a whopping 13%. The hard-hit rate is 40.3%.

In the limited sample size, Pérez has been excellent against lefties, posting a 28.6% K-BB%. Against righties, that number drops all the way to 6.7%. He’s been much better at home, with a 2.68 FIP compared to 3.59 on the road.

Four of his starts this season came in April. He’s made two starts in August, going 3.1 and 5.1 innings. He’s allowed just one earned run, walked two, and struck out a total of nine batters. This will be his first time facing Kansas City this season.

Against left-handed pitching, the Royals strike out at the 22nd-highest rate, have the 27th-best ISO, and their wOBA ranks 21st in MLB.

As for the bullpens: Kansas City has the third-lowest FIP since August 1, while Chicago ranks 14th.

Royals at White Sox pick, best bet

I refuse to get behind either pitcher, but then I look at both offenses. Now I’m just confused and have thrown all the notes of paper into the air. When in doubt.

Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-105)