Stan Son takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for Monday’s game between the Angels and Astros.

This is the finale of a four-game series in Houston between the Astros and visiting Los Angeles Angels.

Yusei Kikuchi is scheduled to pitch for Los Angeles, while Luis Garcia is slated to start for Houston.

Angels at Astros prediction, preview

Yusei Kikuchi looked to have conquered the control issues, as he posted walk rates in the six percent range the last two seasons after being 12.8% three seasons ago. Like a prairie dog, the walks have popped up out of the ground once again, as the walk rate is 9.6% in 154 innings this season. The strikeout rate is still 23.4% and the swinging strike rate is 10.3%. He still gives up hard contact and has served up 21 home runs this season. The ERA is 3.68 while the FIP is 4.15.

Righties hit 20 of the 21 home runs this season. The K-BB% is only 11.7% compared to 22.1% against lefties. Kikuchi has been better at home, as the K-BB% is 5.3% higher while the FIP is almost a run lower.

In 28 starts, Kikuchi has allowed more than three earned runs six times. He’s gone at least six innings 11 times. He faced Houston back in late June, going seven innings, zero walks and striking out nine while allowing two earned runs on six hits. That game was in Los Angeles.

Against left-handed pitching, the Reds have the 20th-highest strikeout rate and the eighth-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks fifth in MLB.

Luis Garcia last pitched in 2023 due to an elbow injury. Prior to that, he threw 155.1 and 157.1 innings. The strikeout rate was in the 25% range while the walk rate was around 7%. He averages 93 to 94 mph on the fastball and was posting an ERA and FIP in the mid-3s. There’s uncertainty as to how many innings he will throw, but it’s likely that he will be on some sort of pitch count.

Against right-handed pitching, the Angels strike out at the highest rate while posting the 10th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 26th in MLB.

As for the bullpens, Los Angeles has the 14th-lowest FIP, while Houston has the 26th-lowest since Aug. 1.

Angels at Astros pick, best bet

I think Kikuchi struggles in this one with a few of his pitches being deposited into the Crawford Boxes. Garcia hasn’t pitched in a while and I don’t expect him to go many innings, resulting in the Angels seeing a lot of an Astros bullpen that hasn’t been good.

Best Bet: Over 8.5 Runs (-105)