The Chicago Cubs haven’t reached the playoffs since 2020, but they’re hoping to change that as they hit the home stretch of the 2025 campaign.

With a day off Thursday, the Cubs find themselves with a strong chance of erasing that playoff drought, but they still have plenty of work to do if they hope to do so via a division title, rather than one of the National League’s three wild card spots. ‘

Even with a loss by the Brewers on Thursday, the Cubs are still 5.5 games back in the race with 22 games left to play, which would be an extremely difficult deficit to overcome since they no longer have any games slated against Milwaukee this season.

Here’s where everything stands as of Thursday evening.

National League Central Standings:

Milwaukee – 86-55

Chicago Cubs – 80-60 (5.5 GB)

National League Wild Card Standings:

Chicago Cubs – 80-60

San Diego – 76-64 (4 GB of Cubs)

New York Mets – 75-65 (1 GB of Padres)

–

San Francisco – 71-69 (4 GB of Mets)

Cincinnati – 70-70 (5 GB of Mets)

Arizona – 70-71 (5.5 GB of Mets)

St. Louis – 70-71 (5.5 GB of Mets)

The Cubs’ Playoff Chances

Needless to say, with a magic number of 14 and a nine-game lead on the San Francisco Giants, the Cubs’ playoff odds are extremely good.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA model, the Cubs have a 100% chance of reaching the postseason, though they only have an 8.4% chance of reaching the playoffs via a division title.

The Cubs also have a 6.3% chance of winning the World Series, the best of any non-division leader in the National League, according to PECOTA.

Fangraphs has slightly lower odds of the Cubs reaching the postseason, though it’s still a robust 99.8%. They also give the Cubs a lower chance of winning the division at 5.4%, and their World Series chances are at 4.5%, the fifth-best mark in the National League.

If the Season Ended Today, Who Would the Cubs Play?

As things stand, the Cubs’ magic number to clinch the top wild card spot stands at 19, as they have a four-game lead over the Padres in that department with just 22 games remaining in the regular season.

If the season were to end today, the Cubs would take on the Padres in a best-of-three series at Wrigley Field.

The winner of that series would then take on the top-seeded team in the National League, which remains the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers have a 4.5-game lead over the Phillies for the top record in the National League.

The Philles would then face the winner of the Wild Card series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets.

In the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Detroit Tigers would own the two byes into the Division Series. The Blue Jays would play the winner of a series between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, while the Tigers would play the winner of a series between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros.

What Does the Schedule Ahead Look Like?

The Cubs will welcome the Washington Nationals to Wrigley Field for a three-game series starting on Friday afternoon.

The Brewers will kick off a series in Pittsburgh against the Pirates.

A pivotal series will be played in Cincinnati, as the Mets and Reds will square off as Cincinnati tries to boost its floundering playoff hopes. The Giants will aim to do the same as they head to Busch Stadium to take on the Cardinals.