2025 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 44

Worried is the wrong word. But the offensive malaise is lingering a bit longer than I expected. The Cubs have scored 27 runs over their last eight games. I don’t think there is any question that the injury to Ian Happ is part of the equation. The tailing off of Kyle Tucker is a piece of it. It’s a reminder that no hitter, no matter how good, just always hits.

There is some interesting statistical noise that I’ve lightly touched on previously. Today I’m going to spend some words on it at length for the first time. The Cubs dropped to 5-5 versus lefty starters. They are 20-14 against right-handed starters. Also, the Cubs went into Wednesday’s game with an .827 OPS that was third best in baseball against lefty starters. League average against the lefty starters is .678.

Against right-handed starters, the Cubs have a .752 OPS. That was 10th best in baseball heading into Wednesday’s game. Obviously, for the Cubs that didn’t change. The league average is .718. It’s unsurprising that the Cubs have been above average against both left-handed and right-handed starters. But they are WAY better against left-handed starters. I didn’t do the search, but I’ll suspect that the Cubs pounded one or two left-handed starters early and those numbers are carrying through.

Rounding out the picture, the Cubs entered Wednesday with an overall .747 against all right-handed pitchers (.717 league average) and .838 against all left-handed pitchers (.684 average). Unsurprisingly, there aren’t massive differences between the starter numbers and overall numbers. In general, you get a massive number of plate appearances against starters as opposed to relievers. Though that disparity shrinks seemingly every year. It’s not hard to wonder if there will come a day when more overall innings will be thrown by relievers. Surely not soon. But some day.

DEFCON has to be one of the most confusing numbers ever. 5 means all is great and 1 means we are preparing for full on conflict with a significant potential for nuclear warfare. I’m moving my DEFCON to 4 for the first time this year. The handy DEFCON chart shows that at a pleasant blue color. Not very worrisome. I think that’s right. Injuries to the top two pitchers, one of the best position players and an offense that has hit a lull. For the first time, I’m not saying that I think everything is copacetic.

Wednesday was a weird day. Jameson Taillon only allowed four hits, but three of them were solo home runs. It wasn’t a bad game overall, but for the second straight start, he was plagued by the long ball. I’m not going to lose sleep on Jameson. But, it does harken back to his early days as a Cub. It’s a reminder that he’s not an ace level pitcher. That doesn’t make him worthless. But this team eventually needs a second elite starter. It’s hard to imagine that person is any of Colin Rea, Jameson, Matthew Boyd, Ben Brown or Cade Horton.

In the interim, this team has to get its offense back grooved in. The offense will lead the way through the regular season.

Pitch Counts:

The big difference in these numbers was a four-pitch inning by Anthony Bender. Otherwise, these numbers were pretty equal. Neither team particularly pressured the other team offensively. The difference is that one team had three homers and the other had one. I throw around the word arbitrary a lot. This whole result is a little arbitrary. The one remarkable thing is the Taillon homer issues. If that’s a thing, there are issues.

Three Stars:

Seiya Suzuki notched the only run with his 11th homer.

Kyle Tucker was the only Cub to reach twice, once with a double and the other with a walk. He also grounded into a double play. But there just wasn’t a lot.

Drew Pomeranz notched another perfect inning. I nudged that ahead of Taillon’s minimum qualification quality start.

Game 44, May 14: Marlins 3, Cubs 1 (25-19)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

Superhero: Drew Pomeranz (.032). IP, 3 BF, K

Hero: Brad Keller (.026). IP, 4 BF, H, K

Sidekick: Porter Hodge (.016). IP, 5 BF, H, BB, 2 K

THREE GOATS:

Billy Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.160). 0-4

Goat: Kyle Tucker (-.087). 1-3, 2B, BB, DP

Kid: Miguel Amaya (-.079). 0-3

WPA Play of the Game: With one out and a runner on first in the eighth inning, the Cubs down two, Anthony Bender got Kyle Tucker to ground into a double play. (.145)

*Cubs Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s solo homer leading off the fourth. (.096)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Yesterday’s Winner: Justin Turner (254 of 312 votes)

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

Ian Happ/Drew Pomeranz +8

Up Next: The Cubs host the White Sox. The White Sox will head into play Thursday in Cincinnati at 14-29 and looking to complete a three game sweep of the Reds. Cade Horton (1-0, 6.75, 4 IP) will make his first career start. Shane Smith (1-2, 2.08, 43⅓ IP) is lined up for Friday’s start. He’s a rookie, making his ninth career start. He’s pitched exceedingly well and is coming off of allowing four hits, no walks and striking out seven against this Marlins team we just saw. The most charged start he’s had so far was a start in Boston as far as large, notable fanbases. That day he allowed three runs over 4⅔ innings. He’s yet to face any of the most highly regarded teams in baseball. That’s a lot of words to say this is his biggest challenge to date.

The Cubs have been great in series openers and I like them to win this one.

2025 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 44

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