The regular season is a slog. Especially when it comes to starting rotations! Teams use an average of 11 starting pitchers — soon to be 12 — to get through the slings and arrows of a long season. They’ll mix and match and use openers and spot starters and waiver claims. Whatever it takes to reach Game 162 on the schedule.
The playoffs, though, are a sprint. With off-days and everything on the line, teams shorten their rotations, turn starters into relievers, and make all sorts of maneuvers to get the most of their staff for that night’s game — because tomorrow might not happen.
During the regular season, when comparing rotations, one might go 10 starters deep. That’s to reflect the injury risk and the reality of getting through the season schedule. But when ranking playoff rotations, it’s best to focus on just the top three starters for each team since the top three starters are the only ones guaranteed a start in a playoff series.
So the task is clear: Of the teams currently slated to go to the postseason, which ones have the best fearsome threesome at the top of their starting rotation?
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
PitcherPr. WARPr. ERAWARERA
0.59
3.14
4.03
2.82
0.64
3.22
0.95
3.41
0.52
3.41
0.73
2.41
1.75
3.26
5.71
2.88
No starting rotation has come online just in time like the Death Star forming in Los Angeles. In an analysis of the top three starting pitchers, their best trio came out with the No. 1 projected ERA, projected Wins Above Replacement and season ERA to this point — and Shohei Ohtani, who would have the third-best strikeout-minus-walk rate behind Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler among qualified pitchers, was left out of the group. As was future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw.
Of course, there might be a thermal exhaust port here. Only a handful of teams have gotten less production (in terms of volume and quality) out of their top three starters so far this season than the Dodgers have gotten from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. Obviously that’s due to injury, which could still crop up with this bunch.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
PitcherPr. WARPr. ERAWARERA
0.69
3.25
5.23
2.66
0.45
3.90
3.64
3.02
0.45
3.65
4.21
4.05
1.58
3.60
13.08
3.24
The Phillies had the best threesome so far this year in terms of overall production, but their playoff rotation took a big hit when Wheeler went down for the season. Now everyone has to move one seat over. Christopher Sánchez looks every bit the ace and can handle it, but now fellow lefties Jesús Luzardo and Ranger Suárez have to be counted upon to continue their good recent stretches despite some velocity fluctuations and pitch tipping issues in the recent past.
The good news in Philly is that they still came up second in all production measures even without Wheeler, and this is without counting Aaron Nola, who has had a really good postseason as recently as 2023. If Nola figures it out before the end of the regular season, what will the Phillies do in the playoffs? How much counts on him getting right?
3. Milwaukee Brewers
PitcherPr. WARPr. ERAWARERA
0.47
3.51
3.24
2.58
0.43
3.82
1.20
3.69
0.48
3.26
1.07
4.50
1.38
3.53
5.51
3.59
Milwaukee benefits the most among current playoff teams by shortening the rotation. With a season as good as they’ve had, of course guys like José Quintana, Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick have played important roles. But they don’t project all that well due to lower strikeout rates and more middling stuff.
Using pitching projections that account for stuff, the Brewers’ top three moves all the way up from 17th over at FanGraphs’ full-season, team-wide rotation depth charts to third overall. Freddy Peralta brings more than a fastball these days, Brandon Woodruff has seemingly three or four fastballs with great command, and hot-shot rookie Jacob Misiorowski will probably be sitting triple-digits in the playoffs. That’ll do.
4. Detroit Tigers
PitcherPr. WARPr. ERAWARERA
0.79
2.52
6.24
2.18
0.36
3.84
2.13
4.74
0.48
3.26
1.07
4.50
1.31
3.50
10.25
3.6
At the tippy-top, the Tigers have the best ace in baseball in Skubal. That pulls all their projected numbers up, and even their season-long production numbers. Nobody has more pitching WAR this year than Skubal, who might add to his personal hardware after another superior season.
It’s behind him where the questions lie. Jack Flaherty has an ERA just a few decimal points shy of 5.00 in the second half, and Casey Mize’s post-All-Star break regression has him another half a run higher on the ledger. This looks like it’s headed towards another round of Pitching Chaos, albeit with a few more decent options this year when it comes to multiple innings.
5. Seattle Mariners
PitcherPr. WARPr. ERAWARERA
0.32
3.96
1.92
3.94
0.55
3.08
2.13
3.73
0.48
3.26
1.07
4.50
1.35
3.44
5.91
4.05
The season-long depth charts over at FanGraphs have the Mariners third, and that’s reasonable, but you can’t fit all five of these guys into a short series rotation. Once you get to a longer series — if you get to the longer series — then their No. 4 starter Bryan Woo and No. 5 starter Bryce Miller will be better than anyone else’s fourth and fifth option, that’s for sure.
But among the top three, the Mariners’ trio actually has the worst season-to-date ERA of the 12 playoff teams. A lot of that has to do with George Kirby’s 4.47 ERA so far in 2025, but Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo have had some foibles of their own. You can push Woo into the top three over Kirby, fine, but that would reduce their projected value, which has them fourth on this list. The next few weeks will matter — they could be a top three playoff rotation when they’re right.
6. Houston Astros
PitcherPr. WARPr. ERAWARERA
0.56
3.35
4.22
2.34
0.58
3.33
4.05
3.40
0.06
4.79
0.35
3.38
1.20
3.82
8.62
3.04
If it were only about the top two pitchers, the Astros would be a couple rungs higher. Hunter Brown has been great all year and would have an excellent case for the AL Cy Young if there were no Skubal. Framber Valdez — occasional temperament issues aside — has a super high floor, and almost as many great postseasons as bad ones.
But perhaps Valdez’s post-season homer issue is real — it’s double his regular-season number, though only in 85 innings compared to 1,058 in the regular season. After Valdez, there’s a step down to their No. 3 starter. Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. (and maybe also the recently injured Spencer Arighetti) could all step up and prove their health, which means they at least have quantity for that last spot.
7. New York Yankees
PitcherPr. WARPr. ERAWARERA
0.56
3.31
3.79
2.98
0.39
3.86
2.61
3.18
0.29
3.97
0.51
3.68
1.24
3.71
6.92
3.28
The Yankees’ situation has some commonalities with the Astros’. Max Fried and Carlos Rodón are a couple of superlative southpaws with a combined ERA around 3.00 and excellent arsenals made fuller by their current coaching staff.
The third spot is a bit of a pain point. Will Warren’s stuff and results have been declining over the last month — which makes sense given he’s in new territory with respect to innings — and Luis Gil has come back from injury with great stuff (as always) but worse command even than his usual mediocre level. Cam Schlittler, though … the rookie would have the fourth-best stuff numbers in all of baseball had he pitched all year. Could he be their ace in the hole?
8. Boston Red Sox
PitcherPr. WARPr. ERAWARERA
0.63
2.89
4.96
2.67
0.34
4.23
1.91
3.07
0.18
4.72
1.70
3.38
1.16
3.95
8.57
3.04
Garrett Crochet passed his previous career-high in innings a month ago and just had one of his worst starts … but the player and the team don’t seem worried, and the radar gun seems to agree. He’s an ace’s ace and will go toe to toe with anyone.
Behind him? Brayan Bello has been a revelation ever since he figured out how to best use his cutter — even with reduced strikeout rates he’s been steady and has avoided most of the big blowups that sidelined him last season. Lucas Giolito has been good, but the projections don’t trust it, and because of that (and the park), the Sox playoff rotation has the worst projected ERA among playoff teams. But ERA doesn’t tell the whole story, and star rookie Payton Tolle and his stellar stuff give them their own wild card.
9. New York Mets
PitcherPr. WARPr. ERAWARERA
0.22
3.59
0.87
1.37
0.35
3.92
3.03
3.61
0.35
3.69
0.68
5.60
0.92
3.73
4.58
3.53
Perhaps the toughest rank of the group, the Mets rotation “should” come in second-to last, if you use a trio of Sean Manaea, David Peterson and Nolan McLean, and their projected numbers. Two veteran lefties with an ERA around league average and a rookie. Seems like a bottom option.
But wait, that rookie has been a revelation, with the highest-spin curveball in the sport and pitches that bend every which way — not to mention a veteran’s presence on the mound already. And McLean is joined by Tim Lincecum clone Jonah Tong, and now rookie Brandon Sproat is also up. What if Kodai Senga gets right? Tylor Megill has been really good in spots too.
Do you know what the Mets’ playoff rotation is right now?
10. Chicago Cubs
PitcherPr. WARPr. ERAWARERA
0.31
4.01
1.15
3.15
0.33
3.88
3.55
2.94
0.19
3.87
1.74
2.78
0.83
3.92
6.45
2.95
The projections say the Cubs should be last on this list. The Cubs’ top trio of Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd have the second-best ERA to date of any playoff trio. A bit of a conundrum.
ERA is not predictive, so this ranking hews closer to those projected numbers than the ones the Cubs’ starters have put up so far this year. We care more about what they will do than what they have done, after all. So why aren’t they last? Only a handful of playoff teams have seen Horton, who throws a unique fastball that could defy projections. The rookie seems to be coming into his own. Their X-factor.
Cade Horton has a fastball with ok ride but also almost no side to side wiggle, the Cubs love this “cut-ride” fastball. Horton models it here, and talks of importance of adding a sinker: pic.twitter.com/oc3T6H1hin
— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) August 29, 2025
11. Toronto Blue Jays
PitcherPr. WARPr. ERAWARERA
0.33
3.86
3.03
3.75
0.35
3.64
0.48
4.15
0.27
4.21
2.14
4.10
0.94
3.91
5.65
4.00
For a team with such a great record and plus-plus vibes, there are also some concerns in Toronto. The more obvious one is in the bullpen, which has blown the second-most saves in baseball over the last two weeks and sports an ERA over 5.00 in that time frame.
But their rotation hasn’t been above the fold in months, either, with José Berríos approaching a 5.00 ERA in the second half and Chris Bassit good for a blowup every five starts or so. Are the projections that put the Jays in the bottom three off? Is this veteran trio at the top (with the second-worst ERA to date and third-worst WAR to date) better than it seems? Could be. That’s on Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber (and his new kick-change!) to prove.
12. San Diego Padres
PitcherPr. WARPr. ERAWARERA
0.45
3.64
3.52
2.84
0.30
3.76
2.81
1.40
0.27
4.21
2.14
4.10
0.94
3.91
5.65
4.00
Here’s a headline from Dennis Lin on The Athletic — “The Padres have enough concerns. Their starting pitching is the biggest.” Sorta sums it up pretty well.
By projections, they should be three or four spots higher. But those projections assume that Michael King is healthy and that Dylan Cease will finally put up the low-threes ERA his predictive peripherals say he will. Those assumptions are difficult to believe right now.
(Top photos of Yamamoto and Skubal: Ronald Martinez, Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)