Just before Christmas, the Mets signed right-handed starter Griffin Canning to a one-year deal worth $4.25 million in December. At first, everyone thought Canning, who was recently non-tendered by division rival Braves, was strictly a depth signing who could get some starts if the injury bug hit. Well, before the season even started, the Mets had two starters on the shelf in Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea. So Canning got an opportunity to prove himself, and he has done just that.
Canning has posted a 2.36 ERA in eight starts, exceeding all expectations. He has struck out 24.1% of batters faced while keeping walks down, and when the ball is put into play, it’s usually on the ground as his ground-ball rate is 53.9%, which is 10th-best in the majors (min, 40 IP). These changes don’t happen overnight. How did this all happen?
In 2024, Canning threw his fastball 37% of the time, and the pitch got hit hard for a negative-12 run value. The pitch also had a .534 SLG and .522 xSLG against. His changeup and slider have also been his go-to secondaries, but this year, he has made the slider his primary pitch, a major adjustment made by him and the Mets brass has paid dividends as the slider has a 32.4 whiff%. However, it’s not just the pitch that has made Canning; by throwing the slider more, it’s made his changeup and fastball more effective. Currently, his best pitch according to run value is his changeup with a +3 (tied for 12th in baseball), while the whiff rate on his fastball has jumped six percent.
The Mets have most definitely found something in Canning. It will be interesting to see if he can keep this up over the year, but even at half of this production, Canning will look like a great find by the front office.
