The 2023 Cubs fell apart when, down the stretch, they couldn’t find a reliable set of relievers to keep them in games. Adbert Alzolay pitched much of the final two months with his arm hanging by a thread. Michael Fulmer tore his elbow. Mark Leiter Jr. stayed just healthy enough to keep pitching (although he pitched much less as September went along) and blew two games during the team’s collapse over the final fortnight. The players on whom the team had relied throughout their late-summer surge couldn’t keep things together in the fall.
In 2024, the team largely fell out of contention early, but they did make a half-hearted surge in August and early September to get back onto the fringes of the playoff race. That hope fizzled, too, because pitchers couldn’t hold up. They entered their Labor Day game against the Pirates just three games out of the final Wild Card spot, but Jorge López blew that game and then went on the injured list, missing most of the balance of the season. If they still held onto any gasp of hope, it flickered out in mid-September, when they made a brave mid-game comeback against the Dodgers but blew the game late, then went to Colorado and watched Drew Smyly (his career flaming out, at last) fail to hold leads on back-to-back nights as Craig Counsell tried to find anyone he could still trust.
You could be forgiven, therefore, for getting a pit in your stomach when thinking about this Cubs bullpen. Constructed the same way as each of the last two seasons’ pens were—with remarkable veteran reclamation projects as complements for one hard-throwing product of the farm system—this year’s group has stumbled a bit in the second half. Daniel Palencia‘s August was rough; he had four truly poor outings and two more very shaky saves. He added injury to that injury on Sunday, when he left after having already blown the save against the Nationals with a “posterior shoulder area” problem, as Counsell termed it. That could be a lat issue, something in his teres major, or one of the major shoulder structures (labrum and rotator cuff) we think of more readily, but whatever the case, it’d be a minor miracle if he avoids the injured list.
These do not tend to be false alarms, and even mild versions of such injuries tend to take weeks, rather than days, to heal. The Cubs should plan not to have Palencia available at least until the Wild Card Series, and even then, it’s not a sure thing. Counsell will have to make a new plan for his pen, on the fly—and then, perhaps, he might get lucky and get Palencia back quite soon, after all.
For the purposes of this exercise, though, let’s assume that the Cubs (as usual) don’t get that lucky. What would a viable postseason bullpen look like, if Palencia can’t be a member thereof? The team will start Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Cade Horton in the three potential games of a Wild Card Series. They’re likely to hold Jameson Taillon off the roster for that series so that he can start Game 1 if they get as far as the Division Series. With those four names off the board, then, who fits into the relief corps if the Cubs do start the playoffs without Palencia?
The Locks
Though Palencia had emerged as the unquestioned closer, he wasn’t the only trusted arm in high-leverage spots. The Cubs will simply slot Brad Keller into the role Palencia looks likely to vacate. That would move Andrew Kittredge up from his secondary setup role to the primary one, from the right side. Caleb Thielbar, Drew Pomeranz and Taylor Rogers will be the three lefties in middle relief.
For the three-game Wild Card Series, the team will peobably carry 12 pitchers. Three will be the aforementioned starters, and in Keller, Kittredge, Thielbar, Pomeranz and Rogers, we’ve penciled in five relievers. That leaves us four more spots.
The Bubble Guys
Again, let’s assume Taillon will be held back for use in the opening game of a Division Series. That would mean that, in addition to the starters already named, the team would have Javier Assad, Colin Rea and Aaron Civale as bulk innings/long relief options. That role isn’t given much weight or consideration come October, most of the time, but in various ways, each of these three offers a more valuable twist on the traditional version of that job. All are kitchen-sink guys, but all also have a couple of pitches they can focus on in any given at-bat and the average caliber of stuff that can tick up importantly when switching from starting to relieving.
In terms of more traditional playoff relievers, though, the cupboard is pretty bare. I’m sure Porter Hodge can do enough to convince some people to believe in him again even with a season on the line, but don’t count me among that group. Ben Brown has big upside in short relief, but the team has been slow to move him into that mode. It’s understandable, given his health history, but they should embrace the attendant risks down the stretch and make him a one-inning arm, to see what they have. Ryan Brasier is much less sexy a possibility, but he is one.
The wild card is Michael Soroka, currently working his way back from the shoulder issue that sidelined him after just two innings of work for the Cubs in early August. His stuff could play up even more than Assad’s, Rea’s or Civale’s in a bullpen role, as he showed late last season with the White Sox. He hasn’t yet made an official rehab appearance, but is scheduled to do so Wednesday. If that goes well, it’s not hard to imagine him stepping into a bullpen job for the final two weeks of the regular season.
The Verdict
Were I making out the roster, I would list the following pitching staff for the Cubs when they start the Wild Card Series on Sept. 30—assuming no more losses between now and then:
Shota Imanaga
Matthew Boyd
Cade Horton
Brad Keller
Andrew Kittredge
Caleb Thielbar
Drew Pomeranz
Taylor Rogers
Colin Rea
Javier Assad
Ben Brown
Michael Soroka
That’s far from a dominant pitching staff, but it’s not an untenable one, either. With lefties likely to start the first (and perhaps only) two games of the series, it could pay off in a huge way for Counsell to have three righties (Rea, Assad and Soroka) who can be trusted with multiple innings even in the playoff pressure cooker, in case Boyd or Imanaga is knocked out of the box early or runs up a high pitch count and faces a fifth-inning jam.
Ideally, of course, this will be rendered moot, because Palencia will turn out to be ok. At this moment, that feels unlikely. The Cubs have a much better record and are in much better position to weather this storm than they’ve been the last two Septembers. The storm is still here, though, and surviving it will require all of Counsell’s considerable creative faculties in pitching staff management.