CLEVELAND — The Guardians have scratched and clawed their way into the wild card race as the season winds to a close. Now they have work to do over their final 20 games.

Entering Sept. 8, the Guardians (72-70) were 2.5 games out of the final wild card spot. That spot is held by the Seattle Mariners (75-68), with the Texas Rangers (74-70) and Kansas City Royals (73-70) wedged between them to create a four-horse race.

It leaves the Guardians with 20 games to overtake three teams and punch their ticket to the playoffs.

But the question is how many games do the Guardians need to win to actually pull off that feat? FanGraphs’ projections for the rest of the season, which are based on a number of factors, can provide a reasonable guide.

FanGraphs calls for the Royals to go 9-10 the rest of the way, putting them at 82 wins to finish the season. The Rangers are projected to go 9-9, good enough for 83 wins. Most importantly, FanGraphs has the Mariners going 11-8 to finish with 86 wins, and that creates the potential target number for the Guardians.

Well, it’s actually 87, because the Mariners hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Guardians — just to make things a bit more difficult for Cleveland’s clubhouse.

Then again, they’ve been through the wringer this season, which has included two pitchers sidelined because of MLB’s gambling investigation and a horrendous June that threatened to derail the entire season, among other tough elements. For the time being, they’re still standing, even with a lineup that statistically leaves a lot to be desired and a run differential (-48) that suggests they should have been buried a long time ago.

“We don’t care what anybody says — if they want to write us off, great,” said manager Stephen Vogt. “We’re not going away. We’re not going to quit. We’re going to keep working every single day and we’re going to play consistent baseball to the best of our ability for 162 games regardless of where we are in the standings — that’s who we are.”

Guardians standings, schedule to close out 2025 season

FanGraphs projects the Guardians finishing the season 9-11, which would put them at an even 81-81. They have the worst run differential of the bunch by a wide margin, which plays into the negative projections. If the Guardians hope to stay alive in the postseason race, that won’t do.

Instead, they need to beat that projection by a large margin and win 15 of their final 20 games. It’s a tall task with very little room for error, and it’s one reason why their playoff odds remain at just seven percent.

Their schedule does have some light spots the rest of the way, which might be the main reason they’re still in the hunt.

After this four-game series against the Royals, which has become crucial for both teams to stay in the race, the Guardians get the rebuilding Chicago White Sox for three games at home. They’ll also play four games against the recently dismantled Minnesota Twins.

They have six games against the Detroit Tigers, which isn’t ideal for Cleveland, but the Guardians could get lucky if they play a team that has already clinched the division and doesn’t have as much to play for the rest of the way.

The season then ends with a three-game series at home against the Rangers, which could play a major role in deciding the race if the Mariners stumble.

The Guardians began that 20-game stretch on a high note, beating the Royals 10-2 on Sept. 8. It’s only step one, and they can ill afford too many missteps the rest of the way.