The Houston Astros (78-66) and Toronto Blue Jays (82-61) begin a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch from Rogers Centre in Toronto is set for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Astros vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 3-0

The Astros opened their 9-game road trip with a series loss in Arlington, dropping Sunday’s rubber game 4-2 to the Texas Rangers. They lost as -134 road favorites with the Under (8) cashing. Houston’s offense struggled, managing only 5 hits, 2 from 2B Mauricio Dubón. The Astros now hold just a 2-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West.

The Blue Jays wrapped up their 6-game road trip with a 3-3 split after a 4-3 loss to the New York Yankees Sunday. Toronto lost as a +160 road underdog with the Under (8) cashing. SP Max Scherzer (4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, 8 K) struggled on the mound, while 1B Vladimir Guerrero went 2-for-4, driving in a run with a double.

Astros at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Luis Garcia vs. RHP Jose Berrios

Garcia (1-0, 4.50 ERA) is making his second start. He allowed 3 earned runs on 3 hits and no walks with 6 K’s in 6 innings in his debut, an 8-3 home win vs. the Los Angeles Angels Sept. 1.

Sept. 1 was his first start in more than 2 years after Tommy John surgery2022 stats (his last full season): 15-8, 3.72 ERA (157 1/3 IP, 65 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 28 starts

Berrios (9-5, 4.02 ERA) is making his 29th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 154 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 2 ER (6 R), 5 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K in 12-9 victory at Cincinnati Reds Sept. 22025 home stats: 4-2, 4.50 ERA (74 IP, 37 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 13 startsCareer vs. Astros: 6-4, 4.37 ERA (57 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 11 startsAstros at Blue Jays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Astros +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Blue Jays -160 (bet $160 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-155) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+130)Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Astros at Blue Jays picks and predictionsPrediction

Astros 5, Blue Jays 3

BET ASTROS (+135).

The Astros look like a solid play Tuesday night as they open their series in Toronto. Houston has dominated the Blue Jays this season, sweeping them in 3 games earlier this year while outscoring them 15-2. Although this matchup comes later in the season and on the road, the Astros have plenty of advantages.

García has looked sharp since returning from Tommy John surgery, and while this will be his first true test, his form gives Houston confidence. The Astros are above .500 away from home this season, batting .254 as a team, and their pitching staff has been excellent over the last 15 days with a 3.28 ERA and opponents hitting just .202 against it.

On the other side, the Blue Jays’ lineup has already struggled against Houston once this year. The Astros’ combination of steady pitching, offensive potential and veteran experience in big spots makes them a strong value pick at plus odds. Toronto is tough at home, but Houston has the edge to grab the win Tuesday night.

PASS.

No need to play with the run line when you’ve got the Astros with plus-odds on the moneyline.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-110).

The Under looks like the best angle for Tuesday’s matchup. Both starting pitchers are capable of shutting down their opponents, and the trends back it up. The Under has hit in 7 of the last 10 meetings between the Astros and Blue Jays, including all 3 earlier this season. Houston has stayed Under in 2 of its last 3 contests, while Toronto has gone Under in 3 straight. With reliable arms on the mound and both clubs trending toward lower-scoring games, the UNDER 8.5 (-110) is the smart play here.

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