The Nationals are +100 favorites vs the Marlins

Nationals vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs

Nationals / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | MAS2

The Washington Nationals (+100) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-120) on Tuesday, September 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.

This season, the Nationals are 59-84 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 81-63 ATS.

Nationals vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 7-15, 5.83 ERA

Marlins starting pitcher: Adam Mazur 0-2, 5.63 ERA

Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneylineNationals-1.5 +155O 9 -120+100Marlins +1.5 -190U 9 +100-120

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+15.00 Units / 214% ROI)

Daylen Lile has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 games (+9.45 Units / 135% ROI)

Mitchell Parker has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 52% ROI)

CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.40 Units / 26% ROI)

Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 8 games (+8.20 Units / 87% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

Max Acosta has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+25.00 Units / 278% ROI)

Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 48% ROI)

Agustin Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.35 Units / 66% ROI)

Troy Johnston has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Jakob Marsee has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.65 Units / 35% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 48 away games (+12.05 Units / 23% ROI)

The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 66 of their last 117 games (+11.07 Units / 8% ROI)

The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 55 away games (+9.60 Units / 13% ROI)

The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 57 away games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)

The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 48 away games (+7.45 Units / 13% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 80 games (+13.60 Units / 16% ROI)

The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 72 games at home (+12.65 Units / 15% ROI)

The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 69 games (+10.60 Units / 13% ROI)

The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 107 games (+9.50 Units / 8% ROI)

The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 73 of their last 125 games (+7.45 Units / 4% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 70-73 against the Run Line (-17.95 Units / -9.76% ROI).

59-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.32 Units / -6.19% ROI

72-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.25 Units / 2.05% ROI

62-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.95 Units / -10.85% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 81-63 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 1.41% ROI).

66-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.3 Units / 2.81% ROI

70-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.15 Units / -5.74% ROI

71-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.9 Units / -3.75% ROI

Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Mitchell Parker has a strike rate of 70% (392/563) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.

2-3-4 Hitters have hit .339 against Mitchell Parker this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .244 — third Percentile.

Mitchell Parker has an ERA of 7.50 (42.0 IP) against division opponents this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.76 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .229 (66-for-288) against Mitchell Parker with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — first Percentile.

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Adam Mazur has not allowed a walk in his last 62 PAs against a RHH dating back to June 20th, 2024 — Tyler Rogers has the longest active streak at 136.

Adam Mazur has a first-pitch strike rate of 76% (22/29) over the past seven days (1 game) — 4th highest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 64% — 93rd Percentile.

Adam Mazur had a strike rate of 73% (66/90) in his last start — 5th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 95th Percentile.

Adam Mazur had a first-pitch strike rate of 76% (22/29) in his last start — 6th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 63% — 94th Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Nationals are just 58-84 (.406) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Nationals are just 10-38 (.204) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.

The Nationals are just 57-69 (.449) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Nationals are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 60-86 (.411) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.

The Marlins are just 62-91 (.405) at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.

The Marlins are just 63-64 (.496) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

The Nationals are batting just .123 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .177.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 41% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Nationals hitters have struck out in 30% of their PA’s against LHP over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .290 (1,524 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters are slugging just .501 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.

The Marlins are just 8-16 (-37.9% ROI) as favorites this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.

Marlins hitters have 47 extra-base hits out of 167 total hits (just 28%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Nationals have allowed 1.79 runs per game (256/143) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.35.

Nationals pitchers have walked 13% of batters over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 8.12 (113.0 IP) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.49.

The Marlins have allowed 8.00 runs per game (104/13) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.78.

The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.

Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.

More MLB Reading:

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