There is a new favorite in town. Judging from the the latest in social media posts, the Phillies made a deadline deal that has brought in someone near and dear to their heart.
Bader is unquestionably in the midst of a hot streak that may or may not have coincided with basically taking over the every day center field position for his own. While the outfield rotations have been moving back and forth between players, Bader has been a constant of late.
It’s been a good year for Bader. He was only able to secure a one year deal from the Twins that had a mutual option attached to it, but he went out and hit well in Minnesota, making himself a desirable trade target all the while. His defense has been excellent as always, but it’s been his bat that has gotten the attention of folks around the fanbase. His damage being done against the Mets has been particularly inspired, but what has changed this season? What has been different as compared to his past few years?
Coming up with the Cardinals, he was mostly regarded for his glove than for his bat, the offense hopefully catching up enough that he would be an above average regular. For the first two full seasons in St. Louis, that looked like it would stick as his wRC+ in 2018 (107) and 2019 (82) alternated between decent and “you can’t really let him play every day”. 2020 and 2021 saw him post wRC+ numbers that were above average (114 and 108, respectively), but then injuries started to enter the narrative. Foot injuries and oblique injuries and adductor injuries started to chip away at his profile, not allowing him to have full, healthy seasons and having him move from team to team in the hopes that luck would swing back his way.
This year, he’s been healthy in both his stops in Minnesota and Philadelphia, allowing him to get back to a level he was at offensively and then another step beyond. Probably, in the most optimistic of minor league profiles, this is the player talent evaluators envisioned Bader would become, but he has seemingly upped his game at the right time. Some of the things that have changed are pretty obvious.
YearHard Hit RateBarrel RateAvg. Exit Velocity202331.7%5.3%85.9202435.5%6.4%87.2202543.1%11.2%87.5
His baseball card stats look much better than in the past, but all the good stuff that you want to see from a hitter has gone up as well. He’s hitting the ball on the barrel more often, hitting it hard more often and has seen an increase how hard the ball flies off his bat. Go a bit further and you can see that a lot of this has happened likely due to embracing a new philosophy with hitting: pulling the ball in the air. The trend started a few years ago, but Bader has started to try to pull the ball in the air more often, but when it’s been combined with how hard he has been hitting the ball this season, good things have happened as a result.
Another thing that we can notice is what he has been doing with pitches in the middle of the plate.
We’ve noted before around these parts about how Baseball Savant has this handy tool that breaks the hitting zone into four part: Heart, Shadow, Chase, and Waste. They’re mostly self-explanatory. With Bader, the real difference has been what he has been doing once the ball has entered the “Heart” of the zone. (We’ll let RV stand for “run value” for each section of the hitting zone)
YearHeart RVShadow RVChase RVWaste RV2023-14-8432024-5-175820258-849
What should stick right out is how much better Bader is performing when pitches are put into the Heart of the zone. Having a run value in the negatives for pitches he should be ambushing is a great way to see the wRC+ drop into below average areas. Hitting them when they are there for the taking will lead to better results.
There is a bit of a pessimistic point of view as to whether he can keep this up. Most, if not all, of his expected stats suggest this is a hot streak. They’re a culmination of what he has done for the entirety of 2025, not just the last month, but if you wanted to be a Debbie Downer, you could say that a regression is in the rearview mirror, catching up. Me? I’ll choose to believe that the numbers he has posted is the result of better processes, a better approach at the plate. I’ll leave the pessimist view to someone else.
One gets 1993 vibes when watching Bader play. He looks and acts and plays like he would fit right into Macho Row. Yet, this being 2025, his energy has boosted the team to their current status as division leaders.