Get MLB picks and player props for Thursday, September 11, 2025. Featuring bets for the Phillies and Mariners.
If you’re hunting for the best MLB picks and player props September 11, 2025, has to offer, you’re in the right place. Here, you’ll find some plays I have featuring the Phillies and a player prop bet for the Mariners.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB info and bets: @SBuchanan24.
MLB Picks and Player Props September 11, 2025
Philadelphia Phillies team total over 4.5 runs +100 vs. New York Mets
After a strong first half of the season, David Peterson has struggled to maintain consistency. He finished August with a 6.68 ERA over 31 innings, allowing 23 runs on 31 hits. September hasn’t started much better, as the Reds tagged him for four runs on seven hits across 5.1 innings last week. Tonight, he’ll face a Phillies team that has already given him trouble this year, scoring seven runs on 14 hits in 9.1 innings against him.
The matchup doesn’t get easier: Philadelphia’s expected lineup profiles well against Peterson’s two main pitches, the sinker and the four-seam fastball. Against the sinker, they’ve posted a .403 wOBA and a .241 ISO, while against the four-seam, they’ve recorded a .356 wOBA and a .234 ISO.
Cal Raleigh 2+ total bases (+107) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Cal Raleigh has been nothing short of dominant against sinkers. For whatever reason, he absolutely punishes that pitch. Coming into tonight, he owns a ridiculous .612 wOBA with a .541 ISO against sinkers this season across 42 at-bats. Even when we expand the sample to include last year, the numbers are still elite — a .469 wOBA and a .329 ISO.
That makes tonight’s matchup especially appealing, as Jose Soriano leans on the sinker more than 45% of the time. Getting Raleigh at plus money, given he’s averaging 2.2 bases per game, feels like too good of a spot to pass up.
Good luck with your MLB picks and player props for September 11, 2025!
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB info and bets! @SBuchanan24