Jose Alvarado’s suspension was unfortunate for the Phillies. He had looked so good to begin the season, so dominant in his outings as he pushed for the team to guarantee his option for 2026. There was nary a suspicion that his work was aided with the help of PEDs, yet his name was popped and his next 80 games would be spent sitting at home. He was vociferous in his defense that the drug he had been suspended for was for nothing more than weight loss and likely, it’s what it was. But it is a fact that he was suspended for taking something he should not have been taking.
Once he returned, it was not the same. Three of the four home runs he allowed were in the six innings he threw post suspension. Three of the seven walks he gave up this season were those same six innings. He simply did not look right upon return and, following two appearances in which he allowed a home run in each, he was shut down for the season with a forearm that was barking.
Rob Thomson talked about how shutting him down now would help him prepare for next season.
However, with the team holding an option for next season valued at $9 million (with a $500K buyout), is next season with the Phillies even something that should be assumed?
Nine million dollars is something in the realm of nothing when talking about the Phillies’ player payroll budget. It seems as though the team always has that amount of money to spend on a one-year deal for a reliever, so it’s possible they see Alvarado as that reliever for 2026. Of course, that money could be better spent on a reliever of a different variety. The team currently has something of a shortage of right handers for what lies ahead thanks to the struggles of Orion Kerkering and Jordan Romano turning into a pumpkin. With Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks already under contract for 2026, having another lefty that carries that much of a price tag may be a luxury they don’t want to have. Maybe using $9 million on the right handed equivalent of Alvarado is a better way to massage the roster.
Of course, having a left hander in the mold of Alvarado is not something that should be taken lightly. His average fastball velocity is still in the 98th percentile this year, though the suspension does cast at something of a pall on that. Having a fastball arriving from the left side on a continuous basis, coupled with the ability to get right handed hitters out as he does, is a valuable commodity. They just don’t grow on trees. If they had the confidence that Alvarado was coming back healthy and effective, the picking up of his option would probably be a no-brainer.
No team knows his medicals better than the Phillies. The severity of his strain in his forearm will likely determine the course of action. Those types of injuries are usually a precursor to something more ominous. Are they really sure that they want to play that game of pitcher elbow roulette? Only they know what their budget is going to be next season, so maybe they’re comfortable taking the risk. Maybe they’re fine with paying him the money in the hopes that he’ll be the Alvarado of old. But unless they are absolutely sure that he will recover fully, it’s a roll of the dice that could be easily avoided by moving on from him.
Either that, or just walk outside of Citizens Bank Park and light $9 million on fire.
Finally, as uncomfortable as it may be to talk about, the fact that he would put his team in the position they were in has to be accounted for. While Alvarado was set at the back end of the bullpen, closing out games with relative ease, the rest of the players were slotted in spots that were better suited for the skillset. Removing Alvarado meant players were being shuffled around. Closer by committee was largely the strategy used, but other times, they would look for someone like Jordan Romano to end the game. Those results were predictable. It started costing the team games and had their spot in the playoff picture somewhat tenuous. They were probably always going to make the playoffs, but one or two of those wins that were blown by Romano would have them near even with the Brewers in the race for the badly needed top seed had the season played out as it has.
It seems like a straightforward decision to make. Elbow/forearm injury + team option that isn’t cheap = new team for 2026. Yet the myriad of other factors that go into the decision will play out in ways we may not expect or agree with. It’ll be one of the stories to watch whenever the season does have the curtain come down.