The online community has looked at WPA graphs that take a wild swing late as a Wee game. This is one of the first I can recall looking a little like a half pipe from skateboarding. We’ll start right off the top with the big numbers. After Michael Busch’s two-out RBI single in the bottom of the seventh inning, the Cubs had a 99.4 percent chance of winning. When Lourdes Gurriel Jr. slugged a three-run homer to give the Diamondbacks a four run lead, the D-Backs had a 96.4 percent chance of winning. That was almost a full 180 degree change in one at bat with the Snakes scoring 10 runs in an inning.
Seven batters later, the Cubs had six runs on four hits, three of them homers. That gave the Cubs a 93.9 percent chance of winning. It was a day for the record books. I’ve already seen that the 16 runs scored total in the eighth inning was an all-time Wrigley Field record. When a stadium has hosted more games than just about any in sports history, any record is a huge deal. I’ve certainly never seen anything like it.
It’s easy to forget the performances of Colin Rea and Corbin Burnes. On a difficult day to pitch, this game was 2-1 through six innings. Rea alog with Caleb Thielbar, Brad Keller and Julian Merryweather held the D-Backs to one run on six hits and one walk. Burnes finished six allowing six hits, no walks and two runs. After those pitchers left, 12 outs were recorded between the two teams while allowing 21 hits, four walks, 21 runs (all earned), a hit batter and a wild pitch.
The ending of this game was so crazy that something I knew was possible happened and I didn’t realize it until I sat down to write. Ryan Pressly pitched a scoreless ninth with a two-run lead. That’s a save, right? Well, no. The official scorer has some latitude with awarding a win when the starter doesn’t earn it. None of the three pitchers who threw for the Cubs threw particularly well. Understatement, right? The Cubs then took the lead in the eighth. And then Pressly nailed it down. And was awarded the win for his effort.
There is a rarely used clause where an official scorer can deem a relief pitcher’s appearance “brief and ineffective.” (For example, if a reliever relinquished a one-run lead by allowing three runs, but was still in line for a win after his team scored four runs in the following inning — that may qualify.) If that’s the case, the scorer can award the win to a pitcher who followed that “brief and ineffective” pitcher. Which relief pitcher earns the win specifically is also up to the judgment of the official scorer.
I’ve never seen this actually utilized. I have seen, the other exception to the ordinary win rule. That one has to do with a starter not finishing five innings. The scorer can chose the most effective reliever as the winning pitcher. So Ryan Pressly converted a save win. You see something new all of the time.
Let’s take a look at the pitch count situation. It played a huge factor in this one.
Diamondbacks 179 pitches – 8 innings, 44 batters (22.38 PPI/4.07 PPB)Cubs 158 – 9 innings, 46 batters (17.56/3.43 PPB)
It’s hard to imagine Ryne Nelson appearing Saturday after throwing 36 pitches. Joe Mantiply will be a little sketchy after throwing 26. Meanwhile, we talked about the Cubs having an off day Thursday and then again Monday. That gave Craig Counsell the opportunity to go a little more aggressively with his bullpen this weekend. I’ll go out on a limb and guess that he would not ideally have utilized seven relievers. Porter Hodge is the only reliever I can’t see available on Saturday behind Ben Brown. Pressly, Ethan Roberts, Jordan Wicks and Caleb Thielbar all threw less than 10 pitches.
The Cubs offense was flat out relentless in this game. The amazing thing is that the Cubs scored 13 runs and forced the D-Backs to throw 179 pitches while only walking two batters and hitting one. I just can’t say enough different ways how unorthodox this game was.
Carson Kelly has two multi-homer games and a cycle and it’s still April. This was just the third multi-homer game of his career. I mean, he only has 60 career homers. Actually, three multi-homer games is impressive. He’s just breaking out in a totally unforeseeable way. He has a line of .410/.578/1.097 that you’d be happy with in your favorite video game. That’s a wRC+ of 325. This is not MVP-level production. It’s God-level production. Obviously, it can’t continue, but it sure has been fun to watch. Not many Cubs have ever had six homers in any 45 plate appearance stretch, much less to start a season.Kyle Tucker finished just a double short of the second cycle of the young Cubs season. Tucker drove in two with a go-ahead homer in the eighth inning. He also scored twice. Kyle sits with a line of .318/.419/.636, a 189 wRC+. We’re going to run out of adjectives for Tuck at some point.Ian Happ had the first giant blow of the season with a seventh-inning grand slam. He had two other hits and scored twice. With a couple of big games in a row, Ian has a .691 OPS that’s good or a wRC+ 103. He’s on pace in the early going for 125 runs while not yet getting honed in at the plate.
Game 22, April 18: Cubs 13, Diamondbacks 11 (13-9)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
Superhero: Kyle Tucker (.575). 3-5, HR, 3B, 2 RBI, 2 R
*Highest WPA game of the year by a Cub
Hero: Carson Kelly (.384). 2-4, 2 HR, BB, 5 RBI, 3 RSidekick: Ian Happ (.179). 3-5, HR, 4 RBI, 2 RBilly Goat: Porter Hodge (-.707). ? IP, 8 BF, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 R, K, WP
*2nd Lowest WPA game of the year by a Cub
Goat: Ethan Roberts (-.204). ? IP, 2 BF, H, RKid: Justin Turner (-.061). 0-1
A couple of games after I was amazed that the pitching received total WPA of over .900, the hitters record a total of 1.065. We are living in some wild times.
WPA Play of the Game: Kyle Tucker’s one-out, two-run homer gave the Cubs a 12-11 lead in the eighth. (.563)
*Diamondbacks Play of the Game: Randal Grichuk batted with runners on first and third with two outs, the D-Backs down one. He doubled and two runs scored. (.504)
Wednesday’s Player of the Game: Ian Happ received 123 of 183 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
Kyle Tucker +7Shōta Imanaga/Matthew Boyd/Carson Kelly +6Miguel Amaya/Jon Berti +5Ben Brown -5Nate Pearson/Porter Hodge -6Matt Shaw -7Dansby Swanson -9
Up Next: Early weather forecasts suggest the wind will blow in, so Saturday should be a vastly different game. Ben Brown (2-1, 5.09, 17⅔ IP) will start for the Cubs. Ben is coming off of his best start of the young season. He threw six scoreless innings against the Dodgers last time out. He struck out five. He did not pitch in the earlier Diamondbacks series.
2016 third round pick of the Cardinals, Zac Gallen (1-2, 4.64, 21⅓ IP) gets the start for the Diamondbacks. The 29-year-old righty pitched fairly well in a no-decision his last time out. In a home start, he allowed two runs in six innings against the Brewers. He did allowed five hits and three walks. He also missed the earlier series between these teams.