Stan Son takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for Tuesday’s game between the Cubs and Pirates.
This is the second contest of a three-game series in Pittsburgh between the Pirates and visiting Chicago Cubs.
Cade Horton is scheduled to pitch for Chicago, while Paul Skenes should get the nod for Pittsburgh.
Cubs at Pirates prediction, preview
Cade Horton has a 2.70 ERA through 110 innings and is averaging 95.5 mph on the fastball. Yummy. The FIP is higher at 3.63, though, while the strikeout rate sits at 20%. The walk rate is 7.2%, and he’s allowed nine home runs. The barrel rate is 10%, and the hard-hit rate is 41.1%. His swinging strike rate is 11.1%, and his chase rate is 29.6%.
Horton has been slightly better against righties—but not by much—as the K-BB% is only 2.5% higher. He’s been site neutral.
In 20 starts, Horton has allowed more than three earned runs just three times, while going at least six innings in five of them. He faced Pittsburgh at home back in June and went 5.2 innings, walked one, and struck out four without allowing an earned run on three hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Pirates rank seventh in strikeout rate and 30th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 30th in MLB.
Paul Skenes has started 30 games and should probably be 30-0. I’m kidding—but not really. His ERA is 1.92, with a 2.35 FIP. He averages 98.3 mph on the fastball and is posting a 29.4% strikeout rate with a 13.7% swinging strike rate. The walk rate is just 5.6%, and he’s allowed only 10 home runs all season. The average exit velocity is 87.4 mph, the barrel rate is 5.4%, and the hard-hit rate is 39.1%.
Skenes has a 31.6% strikeout rate against lefties and 26.7% against righties. His walk rate is 2.9% higher against lefties. Like Horton, he’s also been site neutral.
In 30 starts, Skenes has allowed more than three earned runs only four times, and has gone at least six innings in all but 10 of them. He’s faced Chicago twice this season. In their first meeting back in May at home, he went five innings, walked four, and struck out two, allowing three earned runs on five hits. In June on the road, he went five innings again, walked two, and struck out five—this time without allowing an earned run on four hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Cubs have the 26th-highest strikeout rate, the sixth-best ISO, and rank eighth in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Chicago ranks third in FIP, while Pittsburgh ranks 12th..
Cubs at Pirates pick, best bet
Skenes should do his part in making this a pitcher’s duel. The Pirates offense should do their part as well.