HOUSTON — The Texas Rangers, with less than two weeks to play in the regular season, are officially in the endgame.
Their 6-3 loss to the Houston Astros at Daikin Park Monday night dropped them to three games back of the American League’s third Wild Card berth and into a tie with the Cleveland Guardians. The AL West race, in which the red hot Seattle Mariners own a three-and-a-half game lead over the Rangers, has dwindled into a dream.
The club’s margin for error grows increasingly thin each day. Their losses — of which there have been only two in the last week — only compound it. It’s created a scenario in which the Rangers need to play their best baseball of this season in the final 11 games to give themselves a chance at the postseason.
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Here are three keys that will help decide how it pans out.
Can the bullpen continue to hold up?
The Texas bullpen has teetered anywhere between a strength and, at the very least, a non-issue this season. Their 3.64 ERA is the sixth-best in baseball this year. Their versatility and utility has allowed the Rangers to find success without a high-dollar arm at the back end.
They’ve also had to work.
A lot.
The bullpen has thrown 34 high-leverage innings — the fourth-most in the American League — since the All-Star break. Right-hander Shawn Armstrong, their de facto closer and bullpen ace since the break, has already thrown a career-high 67 ⅔ innings. Left-hander Hoby Milner has thrown a career-high 66 ⅔ innings and has shown signs of wear and tear with a 15.75 ERA in six appearances this month. Right-hander Chris Martin, the eldest at 39-years-old, has navigated a handful of ailments this season and has only pitched seven second-half games because of it.
The trio was unavailable in Monday night’s loss to the Astros after heavy usage in the weekend series against the New York Mets. It forced the Rangers to rely upon rookie right-hander Jack Leiter for nearly seven innings.
Now, of course, a consistent offense which scores early and tacks on late can help alleviate bullpen pressure.
What a convenient segue.
Can the star hitters perform like star hitters?
The Little Rascals helped spark this resurgence.
The Big Rascals (look, the nickname is a work in progress, OK?) will be required to finish it.
The Rangers will need all that their big-name bats can provide. Their three-through-five hitters combined to go 0 for 12 in Monday’s loss. Right fielder Adolis García is in an 0 for 8 drought since he returned from the injured list this weekend. Designated hitter Joc Pederson has slashed .118/.273/.118 in his last seven games. Third baseman Josh Jung hasn’t been markedly better with a .185/.241/.370 line in that same stretch.
Shortstop Corey Seager, out since Aug. 29 after an appendectomy, has only “lightly” jogged and likely won’t return before the team’s next homestand starts Friday night. Second baseman Marcus Semien took batting practice on the field Monday but is still less than four weeks removed from a foot injury that was initially expected to sideline him for the season. The reinforcements — if they do arrive — will have a minuscule runway to make an impact.
The healthy bats that the Rangers have in their lineup now will need to perform up to their expected abilities to keep the ship afloat until then.
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Can they handle their business?
Please, for the moment, put aside the final two games left to play against the Astros and the three games against the Guardians that will close the season.
The two series sandwiched in between those teams — vs. the Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins at Globe Life Field — carry weight too.
The Marlins (70-80) and the Twins (65-84) will arrive in Arlington with their playoff dreams long dashed and a list of flaws that the Rangers can theoretically feast upon. The Marlins own a 4.68 ERA that ranks fifth-worst in baseball. The Twins are 14-27 since their trade deadline firesale and have the second-fewest wins in the league since.
Put it this way: The Rangers can win this series against the Astros, but, it won’t matter much if they flounder in their last six home games vs. teams that should have their eyes set on next season. And, if they do, their season finale series against the Guardians may be nothing more than a lost cause so long as the other postseason contenders in the AL do not flounder on their own.
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