SEATTLE — It’s amazing what a 9-game win streak will do.
The Mariners went from being very much on the fringe of the Wild Card to owning a 3.5 game lead on a playoff spot with just 12 games to play.
Not to mention, of course, they’re in sole possession of first place in the American League West. It’s the latest in the season they’ve held that distinction since 2001.
Now, ESPN gives the Mariners a 96% chance to make the playoffs. Any Ms fans will tell you that’s still not a sure thing, but as we begin scoreboard watching along with hoping the Ms continue their incredible win streak, the question now becomes simple.
What are the scenarios at play?
Absolute Best Case: Mariners win AL West for 1st time since 2001, catch Detroit for 2-seed and bypass the Wild Card.
The Mariners’ 9-game win streak has gotten them within three games of the Detroit Tigers for the 2-seed in the American League.
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While it would behoove Mariner fans to do what the team is doing — focusing on the game and not the scenarios — it’s an interesting thing to think about.
Because we can give the caveat that the 3.5-game lead on a playoff spot isn’t a sure thing, but if we’re going to do that, we have to at least mention the possibility of the best-case scenario in that regard of making up the same exact number of games in a positive way.
If the Ms could do this and make up three games on the Tigers, they would become the 2-seed in the AL and skip the Wild Card. At the same time, they would enjoy home-field advantage for whichever Wild Card team they faced.
It’s a tantalizing prospect, clearly the best-case scenario, that’s impossible to ignore heading into Tuesday’s action, given the current 9-game win streak.
Fantastic Outcome, the Current setup: Winning the AL West for the first time since ’01
If the playoffs started today, the Mariners would win the American League West for the first time since 2001.
That’s something any Mariner fan would have taken in a heartbeat back on Opening Day in March and every day since.
The cool part is, if the M’s keep winning, this will happen. But it won’t be easy with a monstrous three-game set looming in Houston Friday through Sunday.
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In this scenario, the Mariners would win the division but as the “worse” record among all American League division winners, they would still be in the Wild Card — hosting Houston most likely.
For a refresher, the Wild Card is a best-of-three series with all three games taking place at the same site, which in this case would be T-Mobile Park (buckle up).
The winner of this series would go on to play Detroit as the 2nd seed and AL Central winner.
We’ll take it any day of the week and twice on Sunday: Punching their ticket via the Wild Card
Listen, when you have one playoff bid in the last two decades and then some, you take a postseason bid any way you can get it.
The Mariners own a 3.5-game lead on a Wild Card spot, which is truly solid footing with just 12 games to go. However, as we saw just before this epic 9-game win streak, the Mariners are prone to be streaky. So they have to avoid another downturn before season’s end to make sure they stay at least in a Wild Card position.
Right now, heading into Tuesday’s action, the Ms would be tied with Boston for the 2nd wild card spot, except they have the divisional lead at the moment.
But it’s probably easier with the fluidity of every day literally changing the playoff picture to just explain how the Wild Card works.
Three Wild Card teams make the playoffs as the three teams with the best records in the American League that aren’t divisional winners.
So essentially, there are four teams in Wild Card spots and it breaks down this way:
Division Winner with least wins hosts #3 Wild Card (Wild Card team with least wins) — winner plays overall #2 seed
Wild Card #1 hosts Wild Card #2 team — winner plays overall #1 seed (Toronto)
You may recall in 2022, the Mariners were the #2 Wild Card team and had to travel to Toronto as the Blue Jays were the top Wild Card team with the Jays hosting that best-of-three series. The Mariners won back-to-back games to win that mini series 2-0 before running into the #1 overall seed and eventual World Series Champion Houston Astros.
So this scenario has so much going on with it, conceivably, the Mariners could be in play for all three wild card spots if they don’t win the division. Yet another set of hypotheticals that will become clearer as each day goes on.
Disastrous: Mariners miss the playoffs for a third straight season
We’re not going to spend as much time on this scenario, if for nothing else as it doesn’t need an explainer.
If the Ms falter and lose their 3.5-game cushion on a playoff spot, they will be home in October for a third straight year.
For a team with an outstanding window for their talent, and after the right moves were made at the trade deadline, this would be disastrous.
But we have to at least mention its possibility because it is out there, and hopefully less and less of a hypothetical as the days go on.
The Mariners are on the road at Kansas City and Houston the rest of this week before hosting Colorado and the L.A. Dodgers to close out the season.
The season wraps up on Sunday, Sept. 28, with a chance to have much more clarity before that.
Any scenario but this is acceptable, and hopefully, this becomes a non-starter in the next few days.