Brayan Rocchio and Gabriel Arias have been given a clear path to establish themselves as middle infielders for the Guardians in 2025 – do we have an answer in second half-Brayan Rocchio?
First, just to mention Arias, he has established that he is an excellent shortstop defensively. With 3 DRS and 4 OAA in 750 innings, he is the kind of player you feel good about being in the field any time the ball is hit to the left side of the infield. Unfortunately, he has shown little to no growth as a hitter. His 78 wRC+, 33.5/5.7 K/BB%, 50% groundball rate and 71.4% zone-contact rate just doesn’t play as an everyday hitter and at a year older than Rocchio with 120 more plate appearances, I don’t see any reason in particular to conclude he is more than, potentially, a glove-first utility infielder.
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Rocchio, on the other hand, had a HORRIFIC beginning to the year, but, since his return in July, he has a 98 wRC+, a 19.7/6 K/BB%, and has been solid defensively, mostly at second base. All his underlying numbers look pretty steady for the whole season (48/40/22 fly-ball/groundball/line drive rate, 88 average exit velo, 32% hard-hit rate); the difference is that he is now playing at roughly his expected weight on-base average of about .300.
Rocchio is tracking like Masyn Winn at the plate. In 2025, Winn has a 91 wRC+, .298 wOBA, and 19/6.3 K/BB%. Winn, however, has been absolutely sensational at defense this year (20.2 WAR in Defense). I don’t expect that value from Rocchio, but if he can improve slightly from his 2023 season at shortstop and end up with around 8 OAA as he matures, which would put him at slightly below 3 fWAR. This would make Rocchio a slightly above average major league player.
One of the primary ways I can see Brayan Rocchio improving is getting closer to his minor league walk rate at Double-A-Triple-A of 11.4%. If Rocchio can continue to cut his chase rate (something he has cut by 5% since returning) and his swinging-strike rate (cut by 2% since coming back from Columbus), he should be able to accumulate some more walks AND get himself more pitches on which he can do some damage.
You can see some small changes Rocchio has made below. Here is his approach on March 27th.
Here is his approach this past week:
Some small changes you can observe – a straighter up-and-down approach, a quieter step, and a open-face to take a ball on the outside of the plate to the opposite field as needed. The changes indicate increased confidence and an acceptance that making contact is the strength of his game.
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Rocchio does not have an overwhelming tool. His calling card is his range, glove-work and arm accuracy. However, he has displayed enough plate discipline and quality contact ability to give me reason to hope he can be an average hitter. Another offseason to get older and add some more “man muscle” may also be able to help slightly increase his exit velocity. If I were the Guardians, I would be planning for Brayan Rocchio to be the starting shortstop in 2026 and let Juan Brito, Travis Bazzana and Daniel Schneemann (if neither prospect is ready) compete for the second base job next Spring. Good for Rocchio for responding to his May demotion by working hard, getting right and taking advantage of his second chance at proving he belongs in the big leagues.