HOUSTON — Now what?
The Texas Rangers rolled into a three-game series against their in-state rivals with an opportunity to enhance their own chances at the postseason and knock the Houston Astros down a peg in one fell swoop.
They have failed to do either, and after consecutive losses to begin their series against the Astros, are now three-and-a-half games out of a playoff spot with a week-and-a-half’s worth of regular season games left to play. Their playoff odds, according to FanGraphs, have dropped precipitously in the last two days and now sit at 12.9%.
The Rangers remain in the hunt mathematically. Their window of opportunity, however, is especially thin. This is where the math begins to determine how the Rangers can capitalize on what’s left of it.
Rangers
The Rangers are 79-73. The Cleveland Guardians, who are a full game ahead of them, are 79-71. The Boston Red Sox, who now sit in the American League’s third Wild Card spot, are 82-69. The Astros, for the sake of this exercise, will not be accounted for. This is not to say that the Rangers cannot still catch the Astros; it is to say that they cannot concern themselves with Houston at the moment if two teams stand between them. Ditto for the Wild Card-leading New York Yankees and their five-and-a-half game lead over the Rangers.
So let’s break down what needs to happen — or, rather, what can’t happen — in this final stretch of play for the Rangers to finish above the Red Sox and Guardians.
But, first, here are two important factors to keep in mind: The Rangers own the tiebreaker over the Red Sox and can hold the same advantage over the Guardians if they win just one of the last three games that they’ll play against them Sep. 26-28.
If the Rangers and Guardians finish with the same record, the team who won the head-to-head season series will advance, though Cleveland would clinch if the two teams finish with a .500 record against each other because it performed better against its own division than Texas did.
The Red Sox are guaranteed to finish with a better record than the Rangers if they go 10-1 or better to end the season. The Guardians are guaranteed to finish with a better record than the Rangers if they go 11-1 or better to end their season.
Probability suggests that neither will. Here’s are the more likely outcomes and what the Rangers will need to do to still finish above them.
If the Rangers go 5-5: They would need the Red Sox to finish 2-9 or worse and for the Guardians to finish 5-7 or worse. If the Rangers do not hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland, the Guardians must finish 4-8 or worse. If the Rangers go 6-4: They would need the Red Sox to finish 3-8 or worse and for the Guardians to finish 6-6 or worse. If the Rangers do not hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland, the Guardians must finish 5-7 or worse. If the Rangers go 7-3: They would need the Red Sox to finish 4-7 or worse and for the Guardians to finish 7-5 or worse. If the Rangers do not hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland, the Guardians must finish 6-6 or worse. If the Rangers go 8-2: They would need the Red Sox to finish 5-6 or worse and for the Guardians to finish 8-4 or worse. If the Rangers do not hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland, the Guardians must finish 7-5 or worse. If the Rangers go 9-1: They would need the Red Sox to finish 6-5 or worse and for the Guardians to finish 9-3 or worse. If the Rangers do not hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland, the Guardians must finish 8-4 or worse. If the Rangers go 10-0: They would need the Red Sox to finish 7-4 or worse and for the Guardians to finish 10-2 or worse. If the Rangers do not hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland, the Guardians must finish 9-3 or worse. Podcast: Cowboys’ sloppy win, Rangers in Houston and Aggies on a rollRangers playoff tracker: How close is Texas to a spot in the postseason?
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