The Toronto Blue Jays (89-64) and Kansas City Royals (76-77) begin a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri, is set for 7:40 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Blue Jays vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Royals lead 2-1

The Blue Jays’ offense went cold on Thursday, getting shut out 4-0 by the Tampa Bay Rays as -120 road favorites. The Under (8.5) hit, with Toronto managing just 4 hits all game and going 0-for-3 with runners in scoring position. SP Chris Bassitt (4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 3 K) took the loss and remains winless since July 23. Toronto leads the AL East by 3 games over the New York Yankees.

The Royals dropped the rubber match of their series against the Seattle Mariners, losing 2-0 Thursday as a +105 home underdog as the Under (8.5) cashed. Kansas City’s offense sputtered, producing just 5 hits, striking out 8 times, and going 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position. SP Stephen Kolek pitched well (7 1/3 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K), but was handed a tough-luck loss.

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Blue Jays at Royals projected starters

RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen

Scherzer (5-3, 4.31 ERA) is making his 15th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 79 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-4 win vs. the Baltimore Orioles Saturday2025 road stats: 2-3, 4.19 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 in 6 startsLast start vs. Royals: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 4-2 home victory Aug. 2Career vs. Royals: 14-5, 3.15 ERA (143 IP, 50 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 24 starts

Lorenzen (5-11, 4.91 ERA) is making his 25th appearance and 24th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 128 1/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 6 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 8-2 defeat at the Philadelphia Phillies Sept. 122025 home stats: 2-5, 5.75 ERA (56 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 11 games (10 starts)Career vs. Blue Jays: 0-1, 5.02 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 5.0 K/9 in 4 games (2 starts); last in 2024Blue Jays at Royals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Royals +115 (bet $100 to win $115)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+120) | Royals +1.5 (-140)Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Blue Jays at Royals picks and predictionsPrediction

Blue Jays 6, Royals 2

PASS.

I like Toronto (-135) to win on Friday, but I like the odds better on the run line.

BET BLUE JAY -1.5 (+120).

The Blue Jays should bounce back Friday after dropping 2 straight in Tampa. With Scherzer taking the mound, Toronto gets a proven pitcher who’s been dominant against Kansas City, winning his last 5 starts against them while giving up just 2 earned runs across 31 2/3 innings.

The Royals’ offense hasn’t been sharp either, hitting only .238 over the past 30 days. Lorenzen hasn’t been much help on the mound, losing his last 3 starts and surrendering 12 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings, with his last win dating back to July 6.

Toronto has been solid at home, hitting .262 — the second-best mark in MLB — and even though they’re a .500 team on the road, the matchup clearly favors them. With Kansas City also dropping 3 of their last 4 at home, the Jays should grab a comfortable win.

BET UNDER 9 (-120).

The trends are pointing one way in Friday’s matchup. The Under has cashed in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these clubs and 7 of Toronto’s last 10 overall. Lorenzen has stayed Under in 2 of his last 3 outings, and with Scherzer on the mound, Kansas City’s lineup will likely struggle to produce. The smart play here is on the Under.

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