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Should Detroit Tigers worry about Cleveland Guardians in AL Central?

On “Days of Roar,” Cleveland Guardians beat writer Paul Hoynes checks in about the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central race with two weeks remaining.

All the sudden, the magic number count isn’t so fun for the Detroit Tigers.

Rewind back to about a week ago, and it felt like a matter of “how soon” and not “if” the Tigers would clinch the American League Central for the first time since 2014.

Now, everything appears to be in doubt, as the Tigers’ lead in the division is down to just 3½ games with nine to play.

BUCKLE UP: Detroit Tigers’ latest loss to Cleveland Guardians has them crashing to earth

The Tigers consistently came up short in their series this week against the Cleveland Guardians and blew a massive chance to trim that magic number in a real way. Every win against the Guardians, the team now hot on their trail in the division, would’ve knocked the Tigers’ magic number down by two games. That obviously didn’t happen, as the Tigers were swept at home, including on Thursday with ace Tarik Skubal on the mound.

So what is the Tigers’ “magic number” to clinch the AL Central Division after the disastrous sweep? Let’s break it down.

Detroit Tigers magic number to clinch AL Central Division

Through Thursday, the Tigers’ magic number to clinch the division is seven over the Cleveland Guardians (78-71). That’s the same as it was entering the week.

To eliminate the Kansas City Royals, who are nine games back, the Tigers’ magic number is one.

Instead of being able to cruise to the finish line, the Tigers now will have their work cut out for them over the final nine games this season, with three games against the Atlanta Braves, three more games against the Guardians in Cleveland and then finishing off the season against the Boston Red Sox on the road.

How do you calculate a team’s magic number in baseball?

There are two different ways to determine a team’s magic number.

The first: 163 – (first-place team’s win total + second-place team’s loss total) = magic number. In the case of the Tigers, that’s 163 – (85+71). 163-156 = 7.

The second: Games remaining + 1 – (losses by second-place team – losses by first-place team) = magic number.

Every win by the first-place brings the magic number down by one and every loss by the second-place team also brings the number down one.

When could the Tigers clinch the division?

This thing might come down to the wire now. And even worse, it’s not just the division on the line, but the postseason in general. We’ll get to that in a minute.

Assuming the Tigers figure things out and flip the momentum quickly, the earliest they could wrap up the division would be this weekend. The Tigers play three games at home against the Braves and the Guardians play four games in Minneapolis against the Minnesota Twins, including a doubleheader on Saturday. If the Tigers sweep the Braves and the Twins sweep the Guardians, the AL Central crown will be the Tigers’, sometime Sunday afternoon.

More realistically, a lot will probably be on the line in the Guardians-Tigers series starting Tuesday. The Tigers could do themselves a lot of favors and pick up some wiggle room by taking care of business against the Braves, but if the Guardians sweep the Twins, the earliest the Tigers could clinch would be Wednesday.

As for locking up their spot in the playoffs, by far the easiest path is to take care of business in the division. But if not, things could get tight.

As hot as the Guardians have been, winning 12 of their last 13 games, they currently sit on the outside of the American League wild-card race. That’s because three teams from the AL East are in there. So if the Guardians were to beat out the Tigers for the AL Central, the Tigers would have to have a better record than one of the Red Sox, Mariners/Astros (fighting for the AL West crown) or Yankees.

The Tigers play the Red Sox in the final series of the year, so depending on how the Guardians series goes, that could be massive.

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Tigers schedule to end regular season

The Tigers have nine games remaining in the regular season:

vs Braves (Sept. 19-21).at Guardians (Sept. 23-25).at Red Sox (Sept. 26-28).When do the MLB playoffs 2025 begin?Tuesday, Sept. 30: Wild-card Game 1s.Saturday, Oct. 4: ALDS and NLDS Game 1s.

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