The Arizona Diamondbacks have three series to make up two games on the New York Mets and one game on the Cincinnati Reds in the National League Wild Card race. And they have to do all that with the toughest remaining schedule of the trio.
It is going to be difficult but not impossible. The D-backs are going to need help.
With the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres on the slate, Arizona is going to have to play great baseball against tough competition. The Diamondbacks are 11-12 against that trio of likely playoff teams this season.
So, let’s go through the factors when looking at this final push toward a miraculous playoff berth.
How many wins will it take for the Diamondbacks to reach the postseason?
The D-backs need to be two games better than the Mets to reach the postseason and one game better than the Reds.
Arizona and New York went 3-3 against each other this year. The D-backs are 25-21 in NL West games, and the Mets are 23-23 in NL East matchups, which is the next tiebreaker. If the D-backs play well enough to tie the Mets, that likely means they have stacked more division wins and will take that tiebreaker.
The Reds have the head-to-head tiebreaker over both the Mets and D-backs, so a three-way tie would favor Cincinnati.
Here are the win totals needed, from Friday onward, for Arizona to reach October:
D-backs
Mets
Reds
9-0
7-2
8-1
8-1
6-3
7-2
7-2
5-4
6-3
6-3
4-5
5-4
5-4
3-6
4-5
4-5
2-7
3-6
3-6
1-8
2-7
2-7
0-9
1-8
The Giants are one game behind Arizona after dropping two of three at Chase Field this week, and that can be looked at as two games since the D-backs have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Who do these NL Wild Card teams play?
Mets: vs. Nationals, @ Cubs, @ Marlins
Reds: vs. Cubs, vs. Pirates, @ Brewers
Giants: @ Dodgers, vs. Cardinals, vs. Rockies
The difficulty of each matchup can vary depending on probable pitchers and what a team has left to play for.
The Phillies have already clinched the NL East crown, so that carrot is not a factor going into their series at Chase Field. The only thing the Phillies are chasing is the top seed in the NL, as they trail Milwaukee by three games entering Friday.
Philadelphia will run out a piggyback of Taijuan Walker (4.17 ERA) and Walker Buehler (5.29) on Friday, turn to Aaron Nola (6.44) on Saturday and Ranger Suarez (2.84) on Sunday.
Arizona will counter with Ryne Nelson (3.34), Zac Gallen (4.73) and Eduardo Rodriguez (5.12).
The Phillies are also a bit banged up with shortstop Trea Turner, infielder Alec Bohm and reliever Jose Alvarado on the injured list.
The Dodgers are still holding off the Padres for the NL West title, leading by three games with the tiebreaker in hand entering Friday’s games.
It would be ideal for Arizona if the Dodgers clinch the division this weekend, but with the Padres taking on the Chicago White Sox, that appears to be unlikely.
What about the Reds and Mets?
Looking into the opponents of New York and Cincinnati, the Diamondbacks could use a couple big series from the Cubs.
Chicago, however, has nothing really to play for at this point, as the Cubs are pretty dug into the top Wild Card spot. Milwaukee leads the division by six games, and Chicago is five games up on San Diego for the top Wild Card spot.
That said, the pitching matchups are pretty competitive this weekend at Great American Ballpark.
The Cubs will roll with Shota Imanaga (3.29), Javier Assad (4.23) and Jameson Taillon (3.93). The Reds will turn to Nick Lodolo (3.30), Zack Littell (3.86) and Andrew Abbott (2.88).
Washington is down and out this year but won a series over the Mets last month.
The Nationals will run out Andrew Alvarez (1.15) for his fourth MLB start on Friday, Cade Cavalli (4.76) for his 10th MLB start on Saturday and Jake Irvin on Sunday (5.76).
The Mets have rookies Brandon Sproat (2.25) and Nolan McLean (1.19) set to start the opening two games, with no starter listed for Sunday yet.
MLB playoff odds for the NL Wild Card chase
The odds still heavily favor the Mets at this point, with slimmer chances for the Reds and Diamondbacks.
Mets: 71.9%
Reds: 12.7%
D-backs 11.6%
Mets: 86%
Reds: 7.5%
D-backs: 4.6%
