The Red Sox are only 1.5 games ahead of the Guardians for the last wild-card spot entering the weekend.
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Well, things have seemingly taken a quick turn for the worse for the Red Sox’ playoff chances in the last week.
Last Friday, the Red Sox had a chance to add to their half-game lead over the Yankees for the top wild-card spot in the American League. Now, they’re three games back of the Yankees and are sitting in the third wild-card spot with only a 1.5-game lead over the surging Guardians.
Any hopes of Boston winning the division have also been dashed. The Red Sox are six games back of the Blue Jays for first place in the AL East, seemingly needing a miracle to capture their first division title since 2018.
So, it’s clear the Red Sox are battling for one of the three wild-card spots with nine games to go. FanGraphs still gives them a strong chance at making the postseason as well at 82.8 percent, even though that’s down from 90.1 percent last week.
As the Red Sox begin a three-game set against the Rays over the weekend before taking on the Blue Jays and Tigers next week, here’s what they need to do relative to each wild-card contender to strengthen their playoff position.
Guardians
The Red Sox enter the weekend 1.5 games ahead of the Guardians, who have one more extra game on their remaining schedule than the Red Sox. Cleveland is at Minnesota for a four-game set this weekend, with a doubleheader scheduled for Saturday. The Guardians close out the season at home with a pair of three-game sets against the Tigers and Rangers.
The Red Sox won the season series over the Guardians, giving them the tiebreaker. That means Cleveland will have to win at least two more games than Boston to surpass it in the standings before the season ends.
Playoff odds: 25.4 percent (via FanGraphs)
Rangers
Texas still has an outside shot of catching Boston, entering the weekend four games back of the Red Sox for the final wild-card spot. The Rangers have a three-game set at home against the Marlins and a three-game series at home against the Twins to start next week.
If Texas gains ground on Boston over those two series, the Rangers-Guardians matchup in Cleveland next weekend could help the Red Sox. A series split might allow the Red Sox to gain a cushion in the standings.
The Red Sox and Rangers split their season series, so the second tiebreaker (intradivision record) would be applied here. Entering Friday, Boston is 28-18 against the AL East, while Texas is 25-27 against the NL West. So, the Red Sox have the tiebreaker there, meaning the Rangers would have to win five more games than them before the season ends.
Playoff odds: 4.6 percent
Yankees
Looking upward, the Yankees enter the weekend three games ahead of the Red Sox for the top wild card. The Yankees began a four-game series against the Orioles in Baltimore on Thursday, and they’ll have a three-game set against the White Sox at home before hosting the Orioles for three games next weekend.
As Red Sox fans likely know, they won the season series against the Yankees this season. So, if they win three more games than their rival before the season ends, they’ll pass the Yankees in the standings.
With New York’s relatively easy schedule to end the season, though, Boston catching up in the standings might be a tall task. The Yankees are also three games behind the Blue Jays for first in the AL East, so New York could still capture the division title.
Playoff odds: 99.9 percent
Odds to win AL East: 9 percent
Astros
The Astros still have a strong chance at winning the AL West. They’re actually tied with the Mariners for first place entering the weekend, but Seattle holds the tiebreaker. So, the Astros hold a one-game lead over the Red Sox for the second card spot in the American League.
The Astros and Mariners have a three-game set in Houston this weekend. After that, the Astros close out the season with a pair of three-game sets at the Athletics and at the Angels.
Boston won the season series over Houston in August. So, if the Red Sox just win one more game than the Astros before the end of the season, they’ll pass them in the standings.
Playoff odds: 92.1 percent
Odds to win AL West: 41.2 percent
Mariners
Just like with the Astros, the Mariners are also a game ahead of the Red Sox in the overall standings. After their three-game set in Houston this weekend, the Mariners will take on the Rockies and Dodgers at home to end the year.
Seattle and Boston split the season series, meaning the intra-division tiebreaker would have to be used if both teams have the same record. The Mariners have been slightly better against their division foes (31-18) than the Red Sox (28-18). So, if Boston can’t make up that gap, it’d have to win at least two more games than Seattle to finish ahead of it in the standings.
Playoff odds: 98.5 percent
Odds to win AL West: 58.8 percent
Projected likely AL seeds
1. Blue Jays (94-68)
2. Tigers (90-72)
3. Astros/Mariners (89-73)
4. Yankees (91-71)
5. Astros/Mariners (89-73)
6. Red Sox (88-74)
Boston is most likely to finish with the final wild-card spot, according to FanGraphs’ projections. If that happens, the Red Sox would likely face the winner of the AL West in the opening round of the postseason before potentially taking on the Blue Jays in the ALDS.
As for the Guardians and Rangers, FanGraphs projects them to finish with 86 and 83 wins, respectively.