CINCINNATI — The Cubs still have plenty to play for as the season winds down.
They’ve made no secret of their desire to host the NL Wild Card series and ensure their return to the playoffs happens at Wrigley Field.
But the Cincinnati Reds have so much to play for, too, and continue to scrap and claw to try and reach the playoffs. They grinded away on Friday, outlasting the Cubs 7-4 in a see-saw game at Great American Ball Park. The loss means the Cubs’ (88-66) lead over the San Diego Padres for the top spot in the NL Wild Card drops to 4.5. The Padres are playing the White Sox at Rate Field on Friday night.
The Reds (78-76) are 1.5 games back of the New York Mets for the final spot in the NL playoff field. The Mets are hosting the Washington Nationals on Friday night.
Here are three takeaways from the loss:
Reds get to Hodge
Porter Hodge has been mostly solid since being recalled from Triple-A Iowa late in August. Entering Friday, he had a 1.23 ERA in his last eight games and had 11 strikeouts in 7.1 innings.
But the Reds pounced on the right-hander clubbing back-to-back home runs in the sixth inning to turn a tie game into a three-run hole for the Cubs.
Hodge’s outings the rest of the way are worth monitoring. He was arguably the Cubs’ best reliever in 2024, but has struggled this season, entering Friday with a 5.63 ERA and having pitched in just 36 games in the majors.
He clearly has the stuff to be a solid leverage piece in a major-league bullpen, but the inconsistencies this season are worrisome, especially with eight games left in the season.
The Cubs have plenty of question marks on their potential, 26-man playoff roster. Daniel Palencia (right shoulder) or Ryan Braiser (left groin) are both on the injured list and scheduled to pitch with Triple-A Iowa on rehab assignments this week. If they come back and look well, it creates more roster questions for the Cubs’ playoff bullpen.
One outing on Sept. 19 won’t decide Hodge or any other pitchers’ fate on a playoff roster, but these are the kind of performances that will be looked at closely down the stretch.
Shaw’s Dozen
Matt Shaw put the Cubs ahead with a two-run home run in the fourth.
That gave him a dozen long balls on the year, a nice number for the rookie and another highlight of just how solid of a campaign he’s having. He has a 2.8 bWAR and has posted a .671 OPS this year. The sub-.700 OPS is a bit deceiving because he’s been so good in the second half.
Since the All-Star Game, Shaw has an .828 OPS and 10 home runs. He’s stabilized a position of need for the Cubs this season. The hot corner has been a question mark since the team traded away Kris Bryant in 2021.
Patrick Wisdom, Christopher Morel and Isaac Paredes were all candidates to be the third baseman of the future at one point or another, and all have left town within the last 13 months. Shaw looks the part now.
His bat has come around over the final two months – the tool he was lauded for when the Cubs drafted him in the first round in 2023 – but the defense has been eye-catching. Shaw ranks second among all third basemen in defensive runs saved (DRS) at 13, behind the Reds’ Ke’Bryan Hayes.
Shota’s outing
The ball is going to be in the air a lot when Shota Imanaga pitches.
His 54.5% fly-ball rate is tops among all pitchers with a minimum 130 innings pitched this season. The Cubs are OK with that because many of those balls in the air are hit softly and caught for easy outs.
But the issue with being a fly-ball pitcher is hitters can barrel those pitches instead of swinging too far underneath. That was the case on Friday.
The Reds hit three solo home runs off Imanaga, staying in the game by using the long ball to chase Imanaga. Again, the Cubs can live with a solo home run because usually those aren’t backbreaking.
Even in Friday’s game, three solo home runs didn’t put them in an insurmountable hole. It’s when opponents can start rallies and put traffic on for hitters where that long ball plays more of a threat.
What is concerning, though, is the fact Imanaga has been a bit more prone to the home run this season. Last year, he allowed home runs in 18 of his 29 starts and allowed more than one home run in seven starts. He’s allowed long balls in 16 of his 24 starts this year and multiple in nine.