The Seattle Mariners are very likely just a win away from clinching their return to the playoffs.
While Seattle’s quest for its first AL West title since 2001 can’t be completed until at least Wednesday, there’s a clear-cut scenario for the Mariners to punch their ticket to the postseason on Tuesday.
Job ‘not finished’ for first-place Mariners after huge sweep of Astros
The scenario: the Mariners win the opening game of their three-game home series against the Colorado Rockies, and the New York Yankees win their series opener in the Bronx against the Chicago White Sox.
Great news there, because the White Sox have been the AL’s worst team with a 58-98 record, and the Rockies have been the worst team in baseball at 43-113.
First pitch of Game 1 between the Yankees and White Sox is set for 4:05 p.m. Pacific time Tuesday, while the M’s and Rockies will start their series at 6:40 p.m.
The reason this scenario would clinch a postseason spot for Seattle is not so clear cut, because it has to do with tiebreakers – a lot of tiebreakers.
Of the five teams besides the Mariners that could still win one of the three wild cards from the AL, Seattle holds the tiebreaker over every one except the Yankees. But if the Yankees, who will enter Tuesday in position for the AL’s first wild card with an 88-68 record, can reach 89 wins on the season, they will clear themselves of being involved in any multi-team tiebreaker scenario that could also include the Mariners.
The other teams the Mariners are still concerned with are the Boston Red Sox (85-71), Cleveland Guardians (84-72) and Detroit Tigers (85-71). Boston currently holds the AL’s second wild card a game ahead of Cleveland, while Cleveland is a game behind Detroit for the AL Central title and tied with the Houston Astros (84-72) for the third wild card.
The important thing is that the Tigers and Guardians are set to play three games against each other in Detroit beginning Tuesday, after which the Red Sox will go to Detroit for three games to end the season. Because of those series against each other, it is guaranteed that at least one of those teams will finish with 88 wins or less. So as long as the Yankees win one more game and the Mariners reach 88 wins, Seattle will make the playoffs as at least a wild card thanks to owning the tiebreakers over each of the Red Sox, Guardians and Tigers.
Put in more simple terms, there are six teams still in the playoff mix that can finish with a better record than the Mariners and just six playoff spots to go around in the AL. So as soon as at least one of those teams can’t pass the M’s in the standings, Seattle is in the postseason.
The Mariners own the tiebreakers over Cleveland and Detroit due to head-to-head records as Seattle went 4-2 against both teams this season. The M’s have the advantage over the Red Sox despite splitting the season series 3-3 because they are guaranteed to have a better intradivision record against AL West rivals (34-18) than the Red Sox will have in the AL East (30-19 with three games remaining against division-leading Toronto).
The path to playoffs as AL West champs
While Seattle clinching its first postseason berth since 2022 would be a big deal, eyes remain on the division race. The Mariners have a magic number of three to clinch the AL West over the Astros, which means they could do so as early as Wednesday by winning the first two games of its series against Colorado while Houston loses any of its first two against the Athletics, or vice versa.
Even if the Astros were to win their final six games, the Mariners would just need to win three of their final six to reach 90 wins and clinch the division. Seattle grabbed the tiebreaker during its three-game sweep in Houston over the weekend to finish with a 7-5 record against their nemesis in 2025.
The Astros have won seven of the last eight AL West titles, including the last four in a row. But the Mariners lead them in the division by three games entering this week.
The Mariners also currently own a two-game lead for the No. 2 seed in the AL, which comes with a bye through the wild card round plus homefield advantage in the division series. They could clinch that spot as soon as Thursday if they sweep Colorado and Detroit loses at least one game in its upcoming series against Cleveland.
Seattle has been arguably the hottest team in baseball in September, having won 14 of its last 15 games. The only reason it’s an argument is that Cleveland has won 15 of its last 17 games.
If the playoffs were to start today, the Mariners (No. 2 seed) would meet the winner of an AL Wild Card Series between the Tigers (No. 3) and Guardians (No. 6) in the ALDS.
Seattle Sports’ radio coverage of the Mariners’ series opener against the Rockies on Tuesday will begin at 5:30 with the pregame show.
More Seattle Mariners coverage
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• Cal Raleigh passes Griffey for Mariners’ single-season HR record
• Colt Emerson showcasing ‘unique’ talent in Triple-A
• The latest on Seattle Mariners starter Bryan Woo’s injury
