SEATTLE — The Seattle Mariners are on the verge of locking up their long-awaited return to the postseason, and the path forward could be decided as soon as Tuesday night.
After completing a critical sweep of the Houston Astros over the weekend, the Mariners sit atop the American League West with just six games left to play. While their first division crown since 2001 can’t be clinched until at least Wednesday, the team could secure a playoff berth Tuesday if two results break their way.
Here’s the scenario: Seattle needs to win the opener of its three-game home series against the Colorado Rockies, while the New York Yankees need to take care of business in their series opener against the Chicago White Sox in the Bronx. The Yankees play first, with a 4:05 p.m. Pacific time start, followed by the Mariners’ 6:40 p.m. first pitch at T-Mobile Park.
The odds appear favorable. The Rockies (43-113) own the worst record in baseball, while the White Sox (58-98) have been the American League’s weakest team all season.
The playoff math hinges on tiebreakers. Seattle holds the advantage over the Red Sox, Guardians, and Tigers but not the Yankees. If New York wins to reach 89 victories, it eliminates any multi-team tie scenarios involving Seattle. That, combined with a Mariners win to reach 88 victories, would guarantee the club a playoff spot.
The picture becomes even clearer because the Guardians and Tigers face each other this week, followed by series against Boston. With those contenders beating up on one another, at least one team is assured of finishing behind the Mariners.
Seattle also continues to chase more than just a wild card. Their magic number to win the AL West is three. If they win the first two against Colorado while Houston drops any of its first two games against Oakland, the Mariners could clinch the division as soon as Wednesday. Even if the Astros win out, Seattle only needs three more victories to finish ahead, thanks to owning the season tiebreaker after going 8-5 against Houston.
The Mariners, winners of 14 of their last 15 games, also hold a two-game edge for the AL’s No. 2 seed. That position comes with a bye through the wild card round and home-field advantage in the Division Series.
If the postseason started today, Seattle would slot in as the No. 2 seed and face the winner of a Wild Card Series between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians.
The Mariners haven’t won the AL West in 24 years. By Wednesday night, they could finally end that drought — and Tuesday may well deliver the playoff-clinching celebration their fans have been waiting for.