The Philadelphia Phillies have been peaking at the right time. They captured the National League East crown for the second consecutive year, have the No. 2 seed nearly locked up (magic number is two) and still have an outside shot at overtaking the Milwaukee Brewers for the top NL spot (three games behind).
Their two biggest trade acquisitions — closer Jhoan Duran and center fielder Harrison Bader — have been superb. Those two have vastly improved the bullpen and outfield offense. Kyle Schwarber is an MVP candidate. Cristopher Sanchez has emerged as one of the best pitchers in baseball. And Trea Turner has had his best season with the Phillies since signing his mega-deal.
Advertisement
However, the Phillies still have issues heading into October. And that’s why, Phillies fans, I’m sorry to say you won’t be celebrating a World Series parade this fall. Here are four reasons why Philadelphia won’t win the championship this year.
No Zack Wheeler
Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
How can the Phillies possibly win the World Series without their ace? Philadelphia won’t have Zack Wheeler as he’s out for the season after doctors discovered a blood clot near his right pitching shoulder. Wheeler has been dominant in October. In 12 postseason starts, he has a 2.18 ERA with 77 strikeouts across 70 1/3 innings. As The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber points out, in their last 15 postseason games, only one other Phillies starter not named Wheeler went at least six innings. It will be incredibly difficult for the Phillies to navigate the playoffs without one of the top three pitchers in the game today.
Advertisement
No Jose Alvarado
Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Beyond Wheeler, the Phillies will be without high-leverage lefty reliever Jose Alvarado. He’s ineligible to pitch in the postseason following his 80-game PED suspension earlier in the year. Without Alvarado, the Phillies lose a strikeout pitcher who throws in the high-90s, which means others will need to step up in critical situations to put out fires with runners on base. Orion Kerkering has gotten roughed up this year, Matt Strahm has given up more hits and walks per nine compared to his 2024 All-Star season, and David Robertson has struggled pitching on back-to-back days and has a 7.36 ERA in September. The Phillies have an elite closer in Duran, but they need to get to him first with a lead.
Same Old Offense
Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
The Phillies offense is essentially the same unit that disappeared in the 2023 NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks and 2024 NLDS versus the New York Mets. Bryce Harper and company scored just three runs combined at home in Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS, getting upset by Arizona after being up 2-0 and 3-2 in the series. It got even worse against their National League East rivals last year, hitting just .186 with a .597 OPS and scoring just 12 runs — with seven of those coming in Game 2 — in their 3-1 NLDS loss to the Mets. If the Phillies fail to capitalize with runners in scoring position in October and can’t score, it will get tense quickly at Citizens Bank Park. Another quick exit would follow.
Advertisement
Nick Castellanos and Max Kepler Will Have Critical At-Bats
Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
Imagine this scenario: There are two outs in the bottom of the seventh. The Phillies have runners on second and third and are down 4-3. Nick Castellanos, who has a 91 OPS+ on the season and an extremely poor 40.7% chase rate, is up. Do you really count on him coming through in the clutch?
The same concern applies to Max Kepler. Even though he has been playing better since Aug. 1 with a .797 OPS, he’s hitting just .217 on the season with an 88 OPS+.
These two players are going to have critical at-bats next month. It’s hard to imagine them coming through when the team needs them most given the numbers they’ve put up this year.
Advertisement
Related Headlines