How soon can the Mariners clinch a playoff spot, the AL West, or a bye? And how would that happen?
Who should I be rooting for across MLB in this week’s series?
It depends on what you’re after. For instance, if you’re just hoping for the Mariners to make the playoffs with certainty, the fastest, you’re rooting for the Yankees. But the Yankees winning is ultimately bad for the Mariners odds of getting home field advantage. Given my confidence that the Mariners will make the playoffs, I am rooting for whatever outcomes maximize the odds that the Mariners get a bye and homefield advantage throughout. If that is what you’re looking for as well, I present below the outcomes that would do that. Part of that is trying to lock the Dodgers into the 3 seed as quickly as possible so that when they come to Seattle this weekend, they are incentivized to rest their best players and reset their rotation.
The biggest wrinkle here is the Astros series. Since the Mariners are playing at home, I have a strong preference for the Mariners clinching the AL West with a win of their own rather than with an Astros loss. I think the celebration will be more fun for the fans and the team that way. So once the Mariners’ magic number is 1, I’ll actually be rooting for the Astros to win that day, assuming this doesn’t drag out to the weekend. At that point I’ll shift back.
But as I said, it depends on what you’re after. If your mileage varies, sound off in the comments.