The Miami Marlins (76-80) and Philadelphia Phillies (92-64) begin a 3-game NL East series Tuesday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is set for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 7-3

The Marlins stayed red hot, finishing off a sweep of the Texas Rangers in Arlington for their sixth straight win. Miami has now swept back-to-back road series and continues to climb in the standings. It’s batting .278 over the last 15 days, the second-best mark in baseball, and has won 10 of its last 11. It’s still a long shot, but it sits just 4 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot.

The Phillies return home after wrapping up their West Coast swing with a 3-3 record. Philadelphia is still chasing the Milwaukee Brewers for the top seed in the NL, sitting 2½ games back. Its bats have been hot, hitting .280 over the last 15 days, the best mark in the majors. At Citizens Bank Park, it’s been dominant all season, holding a 51-24 record at home.

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Marlins at Phillies projected starters

RHP Edward Cabrera vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez

Cabrera (7-7, 3.57 ERA) is making his 25th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 128 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 5 ER (6 R), 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K, 3 HR in 11-8 win at New York Mets Aug. 302025 road stats: 2-4, 4.47 ERA (54 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 11 startsLast start vs. Phillies: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 2-1 home loss June 19Career vs. Phillies: 2-2, 3.22 ERA (54 IP, 24 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 7 starts

Sanchez (13-5, 2.66 ERA) is making his 31st start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 189 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K, 2 HR in 9-6 win at LA Dodgers Sept. 162025 home stats: 6-0, 2.22 ERA (85 IP, 21 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 13 starts2025 vs. Marlins: 2-0, 1.20 ERA (15 IP, 2 ER), 11 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 2 startsCareer vs. Marlins: 3-0, 1.27 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 6 games (4 starts)Marlins at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:32 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Marlins +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Phillies -220 (bet $220 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-118) | Phillies -1.5 (-102)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictionsPrediction

Phillies 7, Marlins 4

PASS.

I like the Phillies (-220), but I’m not betting those odds; I’ll take my wager to the spread.

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-102).

Philadelphia has dominated this matchup, winning 7 of the last 10. More importantly, it’s been crushing teams all year — a +122 run differential shows it doesn’t just win, it wins by margin. At Citizens Bank Park, it’s been almost automatic with a 51-24 home record, one of the best in baseball.

The Marlins have Cabrera on the mound, who’s coming off the injured list. Even if he’s sharp early, rust and limited stamina are real concerns. That’s especially dangerous against a Phillies lineup that hits right-handers hard. 1B Bryce Harper, LF Kyle Schwarber, C J.T. Realmuto, and RF Nick Castellanos have all put up strong splits against righties this season, and 1 big inning could break this open.

Sure, there’s always the chance of a 1-run game — bullpens make things tricky. But when you put the Phillies’ elite offense, dominant home record and decisive run differential against a Marlins team with a negative differential and losing record, the edge is clear.

I’m betting Phillies -1.5 (-102) with confidence. This is the spot where their firepower should carry them to a comfortable win.

BET OVER 8 (-105).

The Phillies have piled up 410 runs at home this season, second most in MLB, and that kind of production makes any Over live. They’ve also been trending high-scoring lately, hitting the Over in 8 of their last 10 games. The Marlins have been part of shootouts too, cashing the Over in 4 of their last 6. With Cabrera just coming back from the IL and the Phillies’ lineup clicking, I see both sides putting up runs. For me, that makes the OVER 8 (-105) the best play on the board.

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