The New York Mets were walloped 10-3 by the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday, but New York’s precarious one-game hold on the final National League wild card spot remained intact entering play on Thursday after the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks both lost their own Wednesday games. New York needs another win to keep pace, and Thursday’s rubber match at Wrigley Field is of critical importance. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET, and the game will be shown nationally on MLB Network.

If you’re looking to get into MLB betting and want the latest Mets vs. Cubs odds, projections and player props, be sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

Standout rookie Nolan McLean (4-1, 1.27 ERA) gets the start for New York. The right-hander looks like quite a find, having been utterly brilliant in his first seven big league starts. He’ll now get the ball in arguably the Mets’ most important game of the regular season. Chicago counters with Shota Imanaga (9-7, 3.37 ERA). The veteran Japanese southpaw hasn’t quite hit the lofty heights of his first MLB campaign in 2024, but he’s still been a valuable member of the Chicago rotation.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, McLean is set at over/under 4.5 strikeouts (Over -138, Under +104) while Imanaga is set at 5.5 (Over +122, Under -162). The SportsLine model rates McLean’s over 4 stars out of 5, as it projects him to notch 5.7 strikeouts

Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is the favorite to hit a home run at FanDuel at +255. He’s followed by Francisco Lindor (+370), Juan Soto (+390), Francisco Alvarez (+460), Mark Vientos (+500), Michael Busch (+520) and Seiya Suzuki (+540). 

Check out the model’s plays for Mets vs. Cubs on Thursday. 

NEW YORK METS at CHICAGO CUBS | 9/25 | 7:40 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Cubs -106
Chicago wins in 60% of simulations

Run line
Pick: Cubs +1.5 (-185)
Chicago covers in 74% of simulations

Over/Under
Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)
The Over hits in 65.7% of simulations

Projected score: Cubs 4.9, Mets 4.4