Griffin Wong gives you a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Colorado Rockies and the Seattle Mariners.
Last night will go down as one of the most storied in the Seattle Mariners’ franchise history: not only did catcher Cal Raleigh add to his MVP campaign with a pair of homers to become the first catcher, switch-hitter, and Mariner to hit 60 in a single season, they also claimed their first division title since 2001. Anything that happens in tonight’s series finale against the Colorado Rockies and this weekend’s series against the Los Angeles Dodgers is gravy.
Seattle, trailing the Toronto Blue Jays by one game, can still clinch the first seed in the playoffs if it makes that a priority, but a matchup against either of the runners-up in the AL East is probably more difficult than a matchup against either of the top two in the AL Central regardless.
For tonight’s 9:40 p.m. ET matchup, the Rockies will start Bradley Blalock, while the Mariners opt for a bullpen game in injured ace Bryan Woo’s typical spot, likely opened by Emerson Hancock.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners prediction, preview
With Seattle’s quest for the division complete, there was no reason to risk an injury to Woo, who left his last start last Friday with pec tightness, especially not against a historically woeful team in Colorado. As long as Woo is healthy, the Mariners should feel good about their position entering the playoffs: they’ve gone 16-5 this month, worse than only the miraculously charging Cleveland Guardians, and Big Dumper has posted a 1.128 OPS and smacked 10 homers in his quest to break Aaron Judge’s American League single-season home run record and win his first career MVP. The Rockies shouldn’t feel good about much, though they will avoid finishing with the worst record in MLB history.
Blalock certainly shouldn’t provide Colorado with much reason for optimism. The 24-year-old is in his first full season with the team after arriving in a midseason trade from the Milwaukee Brewers last July, and he’s been atrocious, posting a 9.16 ERA in 55.0 innings across 13 games (11 starts). Since the start of July, Blalock’s track record has been especially bleak: he allowed three runs in five innings with Triple-A Albuquerque, put up a 6.39 ERA in six MLB starts, had a 9.37 mark across five starts back in Triple-A, then recalled for two games and a 12.38 ERA. It’s not like Blalock has only struggled at Coors Field, either; while a 12.27 ERA at home is astoundingly poor, a 5.61 mark on the road also isn’t ideal. He ranks in the bottom decile in six of the 12 Statcast categories.
Hancock, meanwhile, had been in Seattle’s rotation through July 1, posting a 5.47 ERA in 77.1 innings before being demoted to the minors, where he posted similar numbers. Since being recalled to the majors in a bullpen role, he has been stellar, giving up just 10 hits and four runs (two earned) in 8.2 innings, and he hasn’t pitched since September 16, so he should be quite well-rested. He won’t pitch a full starter’s load, but two or three innings of scoreless or one-run ball is a reasonable expectation. As a whole, the Mariners’ bullpen has had a 2.91 ERA this month and a solid 3.71 ERA overall, so Seattle should feel confident. The Rockies have also had by far the league’s worst offense on the road.
Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners pick, best bet
Best Bet: Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-119)
It depends on how long Hancock stays in the game, since he hasn’t been a great pitcher for most of the season. But regardless of how bad Hancock may pitch, Blalock will almost certainly pitch worse, and Colorado’s offense has been unable to do anything outside of Coors Field.
Strong Lean: Eugenio Suárez or Cal Raleigh 1+ Home Runs (-107)
Raleigh isn’t the only Mariner experiencing a legendary power surge. Suárez also went deep last night and is one homer shy of tying his career-best mark of 49, which he set back in 2019. Blalock’s homer rate is the second highest among pitchers with at least 50 innings.
To the Moon 🚀
All three within top 4 in HRs & had 2 in L1 | Bet them to launch 1+ tonight!
Odds: +2063
Cal Raleigh 1+ Home Run
Cal Raleigh Home Runs
Kyle Schwarber 1+ Home Run
Kyle Schwarber Home Runs
Aaron Judge 1+ Home Run
Aaron Judge Home Runs
Ends in: –:–
Bet Count: 1542