The Minnesota Twins (69-90) and the Philadelphia Phillies (94-65) begin a 3-game interleague series Friday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Twins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Twins won 2-1 in 2024
The Twins have long since been eliminated from the postseason chase, but they took 2 of 3 games in Texas Tuesday through Thursday, helping to get the Rangers to join them on the couch for the playoffs. On Thursday, Minnesota won 4-0 as slight underdogs (+130) as the Under (8) cashed behind RHP Bailey Ober. All-Star OF Byron Buxton was the big bat, going 2-for-4 with a pair of homers and all 4 RBIs in the victory. Minnesota has won 3 of the past 4 games, and the Under has cashed in 6 straight outings.
The Phillies are still in the mix for the No. 1 overall seed in the National League, but time is running out. They’re 2 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers with just 3 games to play. Philadelphia has already clinched the NL East, as it sits 12 games up on the New York Mets, and the worst it can do is the No. 2 seed, as it is 4 games clear of the LA Dodgers, the NL West winner.
The Phillies won 1-0 in the series finale over the Miami Marlins Thursday, with 3B Alec Bohm collecting a pair of singles and the lone RBI in 4 at-bats. 2B Bryson Stott also had a pair of singles in 3 at-bats, as Philadelphia had 7 total singles and no extra-base hits in the pitcher’s duel. RHP Walker Buehler improved to 3-0 since joining the team, pitching 5 scoreless frames while lowering his ERA to 0.66.
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Twins at Phillies projected starters
RHP Joe Ryan vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Ryan (13-9, 3.47 ERA) makes his 30th start (31st appearance). He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 166 innings.
Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 6 H (4 HR), 2 BB, 5 K in 6-0 loss vs. Cleveland Guardians last SaturdayLast 7 games: 2-4, 6.15 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 13 BB, 39 K, 1.49 WHIP2025 road stats: 6-4, 3.46 ERA (80 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 12 HR, 16 BB, 82 K, 1.00 WHIP in 14 startsHas never faced Phillies
Nola (4-10, 6.46 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 86 1/3 innings.
Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-3 road loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks last SaturdayLast 7 games: 3-3, 6.87 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 12 BB, 36 K, 1.36 WHIP2025 home stats: 4-4, 6.00 ERA (45 IP, 30 ER), 10 HR, 14 BB, 42 K, 1.42 WHIP in 8 startsCareer vs. Twins: 0-1, 8.00 ERA (9 IP, 8 ER), 1 HR, 6 BB, 8 K, 2.11 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 in 2 startsTwins at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:53 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Twins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -150 (bet $150 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-165) | Phillies -1.5 (+135)Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Twins at Phillies picks and predictionsPrediction
Phillies 8, Twins 5
The PHILLIES (-150) are worth a look as moderate favorites, but be prepared to hold your breath.
Nola has been horrible this season, and at no point has he shown any consistency, unless you mean consistently bad. The good news is that the All-Star Ryan has tailed off badly, and he is not finishing up strong, either. We saw a 1-0 win by Philadelphia in a pitcher’s duel Thursday. This interleague series opener will be the completely opposite of that.
The PHILLIES -1.5 (+135) are a high-risk, high-reward play. There would be little reason to ever back the 32-year-old veteran Nola with this kind of a bet, but the good news is that Ryan has been just as bad lately, and the Philadelphia offense should be able to overcome the veteran right-hander to outscore Minnesota in this crucial game. This is likely the last time you’ll see Nola start this season, as he should be destined to a long-relief role in the postseason.
OVER 8.5 (-105) is easily the best play on the board.
Ryan has stunk lately, and he served up 4 homers in his most recent start against Cleveland. Nola has stunk all season, and we have 2 shaky pitchers working in the bandbox known as Citizens Bank Park. We should easily get to double digits for runs.
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