The Texas Rangers (81-80) and Cleveland Guardians (87-74) meet in the finale of their 3-game series and final regular-season game Sunday. First pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio, is set for 3:10 p.m. ET (MLB.TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Rangers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rangers lead 4-1

The Guardians are in the playoffs. They can clinch the AL Central with a win, or with a Detroit Tigers loss. They could also drop to a Wild Card spot with a loss and a Tigers win over the Boston Red Sox.

The Rangers lost to the Guardians 3-2 Saturday, closing as a +130 underdog as the Under (6.5) cashed. SP Jacob Latz gave up 2 ER in 5 1/3 IP (5 H, 0BB, 6 K). Texas did win the series-opening game 7-3 Friday. It has gone 2-10 in its previous 12 games.

Cleveland received 5 2/3 quality innings from SP Joey Cantillo Saturday (3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K) and used a tie-breaking hit-by-a-pitch in the bottom of the ninth to win it. The Guardians are 13-3 in its last 16 games.

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Rangers at Guardians projected starters

LHP Patrick Corbin vs. LHP Logan Allen

Corbin (7-11, 4.34 ERA) makes his 30th start (31st appearance). He has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 151 1/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 4-1 loss vs. Minnesota Twins Tuesday2025 road stats: 4-5, 5.31 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 45 ER), 1.49 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 in 15 startsCareer vs. Guardians: 1-1, 4.03 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 4 starts

Allen (8-11, 4.14 ERA) makes his 29th start (30th appearance). He has a 1.39 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 152 1/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 8-0 win Sept. 20 at Twins2025 home stats: 4-7, 3.92 ERA (85 IP, 37 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 in 15 starts (16 appearances)Career vs. Rangers: 0-1, 16.20 ERA (5 IP, 9 ER), 2.20 WHIP, 3.6 K/9 in 1 startRangers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Rangers +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Guardians -145 (bet $145 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-190) | Guardians -1.5 (+155)Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Rangers at Guardians picks and predictionsPrediction

Guardians 5, Rangers 2

PASS.

While the Guardians (-145) is enticing, the better play is on the spread.

BET GUARDIANS -1.5 (+155).

The risk is worth the reward here. The Guardians didn’t cover as a favorite Saturday, but they have been on a tear over the last few weeks. They are 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games. Cleveland will also get Allen on the mound, and he is coming off arguably his best performance of the season.

The Rangers have hit a wall offensively. They have scored 2 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 6 games. Texas is just 3-5 ATS in its last 8. With Cleveland having more on the line, take GUARDIANS -1.5 (+155).

BET UNDER 7.5 (-110).

Both teams are trending toward the Under. The Rangers are 1-6 O/U in their last 7 games and haven’t allowed more than 4 runs in any of those. The Guardians are 2-6 O/U in their last 8 contests.

Considering those trends for both sides, back UNDER 7.5 (-110).

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