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Best Home Run Bets for 9/30

Do you know how impressive it is to finish near +40 units DESPITE a 2+ week stretch without a correct HR bet? That’s just how powerful our Inside the Lines system was this season. I’ll have my best Home Run Bets for the first day of the playoffs as soon as the lines are up.

In the meantime, these are my favorite futures bets before the playoffs start.

2025 MLB Playoffs Best BetsWild Card Round

Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers Over 2.5 Series Games (-110, DraftKings)

The Guardians had a historic comeback to win the AL Central, while the Tigers had a historic collapse, but the Tigers have Cy Young Winner Tarik Skubal on the mound while the Guardians don’t. These are two evenly matched teams according to our Inside the Lines Model, so we think if the Tigers win Game 1, there’s a good chance the Guardians take Game 2. 

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Over 2.5 Series Games (-105, DraftKings) 

This is another matchup where the home team (Yankees) are coming in hot and have been playing strong baseball, but the road team has pitching advantage. The Red Sox went 4-0 against the Yankees this season when Garrett Crochet was on the mound, and while Yankees’ starter Max Fried had solid numbers against the Red Sox, he did allow them to hit .278. If the Red Sox win Game 1, we think there is a strong chance this gets to Game 3. 

Chicago Cubs to Win Series vs. San Diego Padres (-125, DraftKings)

This play has almost everything to do with home/road splits. The Cubs are 50-31 at home this season, while the Padres are 38-43 on the road. Wrigleyville will be pumping during the playoffs, and the Cubs have a huge home advantage, which we think helps offset the loss of stud pitcher Cade Horton for this series. We set the line closer to -180 for the Cubs to take this series. 

American League

Seattle Mariners to Win the AL (+200, FanDuel)

The Mariners currently have the most favorable path to the WS, as they have a first round bye then get the winner of Cleveland/Detroit in the ALDS and have home field advantage. Getting +200 here is good value, as you can likely hedge if they make the ALCS and still be profitable. The Mariners have the best rotation in the AL, while they revamped their lineup before the trade deadline. 

SEEDALWCLDSAL ODDSWIN ALWS ODDSWIN WS1Toronto Blue Jays100.0%40.3%+280 (26.3%)19.1%+850 (10.5%)8.1%2Seattle Mariners100.0%64.6%+200 (33.3%)35.3%+500 (16.7%)18.4%3Cleveland Guardians51.5%15.9%+900 (10%)5.3%+2200 (4.3%)1.7%4New York Yankees69.3%45.2%+400 (20%)26.8%+850 (10.5%)16.0%5Boston Red Sox30.7%14.6%+750 (11.8%)6.2%+1900 (5%)2.3%6Detroit Tigers48.5%19.6%+850 (10.5%)7.4%+2000 (4.8%)3.0%
SEEDNLWCLDSNL ODDSWIN NLWS ODDSWIN WS1Milwaukee Brewers100.0%48.1%+370 (21.3%)21.5%+850 (10.5%)10.0%2Philadelphia Phillies100.0%51.0%+200 (33.3%)28.7%+410 (19.6%)14.8%3Los Angeles Dodgers64.1%36.1%+290 (25.6%)23.0%+500 (16.7%)13.6%4Chicago Cubs63.7%34.5%+650 (13.3%)15.2%+1300 (7.1%)7.6%5San Diego Padres36.3%17.4%+700 (12.5%)6.4%+1400 (6.7%)2.9%6Cincinnati Reds35.9%12.9%+1500 (6.2%)5.3%+3000 (3.2%)1.7%NEW YORK VS BOSTONSIM%FDFD%VALUENEW YORK YANKEES69.3%-18865.3%4.0%BOSTON RED SOX30.7%+15239.7%-9.0%
CLEVELAND VS DETROITSIM%FDFD%VALUECLEVELAND GUARDIANS51.5%-10651.5%0.0%DETROIT TIGERS48.5%-11453.3%-4.8%
LOS ANGELES VS CINCINNATISIM%FDFD%VALUELA DODGERS64.1%-24571.0%-6.9%CINCINNATI REDS35.9%+19034.5%1.4%
CHICAGO VS SAN DIEGOSIM%FDFD%VALUECHICAGO CUBS63.7%-12856.1%7.6%SAN DIEGO PADRES36.3%+10449.0%-12.7%Where to bet MLB props for the Playoffs

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Sunday: 

More MLB picks

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several teams. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Angelo Magliocca, who is on an 84-62-1 roll (+1629) on MLB picks.