Garion Thorne preps you for tonight’s Wild Gard game between the Reds and the Dodgers with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

This Wild Card series is so, so odd. Neither of these teams is supposed to be here, but for very different reasons.

You’ll remember that the Dodgers were going to set to all-time regular season wins record after a winter free agency period that saw the team add Blake Snell ($12,200) and Roki Sasaki ($10,600) to an already stacked pitching staff. Well, needless to say, that didn’t happen. Los Angeles underwhelmed all summer long, at least in the context of its absurd expectations, and though it won the NL West, it did so with fewer victories than the Phillies or the Brewers. Now the reigning World Series Champions will have to survive a three-game set.

Then there’s the Reds. I think it would be rude to imply that Cincinnati backed its way into the postseason, as the team did buckle down and go 7-3 across its final 10 games. However, the Reds only finished with 83 wins and the squad can mainly thank a historic collapse from the Mets for its entry into October baseball.

Can Cincinnati shock the world and pull off an upset? Let’s break down Game 1 from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings MLB DFS lineups here: MLB Showdown $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st] (CIN @ LAD)

Reds vs. Dodgers Game 1 Showdown

Captain’s Picks

Blake Snell ($18,300 CP) – Snell hasn’t had the opportunity to pitch in the postseason since all the way back in 2022, but the left-hander will start Game 1 for the Dodgers on Tuesday. The left-hander’s been about as good anyone could have possibly imagined since coming off the IL in the beginning of August, pitching to a 2.41 ERA and a 2.31 FIP across nine starts and 52.1 innings. Most impressive of all? Snell’s only walked 18 opponents in that span, which translates out to an 8.7% walk rate. For some context, if prorated over an entire campaign, that would be the lowest single season mark of Snell’s career. A version of Snell that doesn’t give away free passes like candy on Halloween is a scary concept for opposing lineups; especially a Reds team that ranks 28th in ISO (.124) and 26th in wRC+ (79) against southpaws.

Max Muncy ($12,000 CP) – It’s been a weird season for Muncy. After a horrid month of April, the veteran infielder made the simple adjustment at the plate of [checks notes] …wearing glasses? Who would have guessed being able to see would be important to hitting a baseball? While injuries have limited Muncy’s availability down the stretch, the 35-year-old’s impressive platoon splits with spectacles can not be ignored. From the beginning of May on, Muncy slashed .282/.433/.571 with a .288 ISO and a 176 wRC+ in his 231 plate appearances against RHPs. Hunter Greene ($11,200) is an amazing right-handed pitcher, but right-handed nonetheless.

FLEX Plays

Hunter Greene ($11,200) – It’ll be difficult to fit both of these starters into a single build, but each has incredible fantasy upside. Greene would have contended for the NL Cy Young in both 2024 and 2025 if not for injuries, yet the former second-overall pick was limited to only 19 starts this season. Still, what a 19 starts they were. Across 107.2 innings, Greene maintained a 2.76 ERA and a 3.09 xERA. Most crucially, at least for the purposes of MLB DFS, Greene’s 31.4% strikeout rate was the fifth-highest mark in baseball among pitchers with 100 innings thrown; trailing just Zack Wheeler, Chris Sale, Tarik Skubal and Logan Gilbert. Pretty good company.

Andy Pages ($6,200) – It was a breakout season for Pages, who actually ranked fourth on the Dodgers in plate appearances in 2025, behind Shohei Ohtani ($10,000), Mookie Betts ($8,600) and Freddie Freeman ($8,200). In total, Pages hit .272 with 27 home runs and a 113 wRC+ over 156 games. That, along with the 24-year-old’s modest price point, would already be enough for Pages to be viable in Game 1. However, it certainly helps his case that Pages has three career home runs off Greene in only five at-bats — including two when these two squads faced-off in late August. Greene’s a stud, but he has had long balls issues throughout his time in MLB. This season, Greene combined a 13th percentile ground ball rate (34.2%) with a 15th percentile opponent hard hit rate (45.0%). That’s a formula for home runs.

Fades

Elly De La Cruz ($9,000) – First off, it’s a little silly that De La Cruz’s salary is higher than Betts’ and Freeman’s. The Reds’ shortstop is a talented phenom, but he also finished the season with just 22 home runs and a 108 wRC+. To that point, De La Cruz’s largest issue continues to be his complete inability to hit left-handed pitching. Despite being a switch-hitter, De La Cruz managed a paltry .106 ISO and 64 wRC+ in his 210 plate appearances as an RHB. That aligns almost perfectly with the 23-year-old’s career numbers, with De La Cruz slashing .220/.278/.329 within the split. It’s no wonder why De La Cruz is hitless in his prior meetings with Snell.

The Outcome

Hunter Greene is one of the NL’s best pitchers, yet the Reds do not have the ability to support him like the Dodgers can support Blake Snell — especially with Cincinnati’s noted struggles with LHPs. Los Angeles is also 52-29 at Dodger Stadium this season, which is tied for the third-best home record in baseball.

Final Score: Los Angeles 4, Cincinnati 2