Wildcard Game Two Preview: Guardians vs. Casey Mize

It’s an elimination game for the Guardians, and after their feeble offensive performance against Detroit yesterday, answers need to be found heading into an outing against Casey Mize.

Mize is a strike thrower who has come a long way since his days as the Verlander heir-apparent in Detroit. On the season, he put up a 3.87 ERA across 149 innings with 139 strikeouts, and he’s seen Cleveland three times this season, faring well over his first two outings before the Guards got to him for a few runs on 9/16. Let’s take a closer look at these three outings:

May 24: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
July 5: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
September 16: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

Pitch Type

Avg Velo

Usage v. RHP

Whiff%

xwOBA

Usage v. LHP

Whiff%

xwOBA

Fastball

94.1

29.3%

28.6%

.555

40%

17.9%

.340

Splitter

14.6%

40%

.000

34.2%

32.6%

.251

Slider

87.6

4.9%

—

19.1%

25.0%

.052

Slurve

17.1%

25%

.063

6.7%

18.2%

.122

Sinker

94.1

34.1%

22.2%

.317

—

TOTAL

—

28%

.307

—

25%

.257

The Guardians have routinely stacked lefties against right-handed pitchers, and against Mize, it’s been no different. What’s kept Mize away from damage has been his splitter. It’s his best pitch, generates the most swings outside of the zone, and runs his highest whiff rate. Mize loves using his fastball and slider to get ahead early in counts early to left-handed batters. In fact, the two pitches combine for 71.5% of all of Mize’s first pitch offerings. From there, it sets up the split-finger later in counts that dives below the zone and creates swing and miss. The game plan against lefties can really just be that simple if he’s getting ahead in the count quickly.

For the Guardians, they have surprisingly hit splitters decently this season despite seeing the second highest rate of them of any team in baseball. Overall, the Guards have the fourth highest batting average in MLB against splitters (.242) with the a top ten wOBA (.265) and the seventh highest SLG% against them (.365). Narrowing it down to just the left-handed at-bats in Cleveland’s lineup, they slug over .400 against splitters with a barrel rate of 7.5%. Below is each Guardians hitter on the Postseason roster and how they fare against splitters (* marks AAA stats).

Player

Pitches

BIP

AVG

SLG

woBA

xwOBA

Whiff%

HH%

Barrel%

Jose Ramirez

141

.361

.500

.371

.274

26.8%

13.8%

3.4%

Steven Kwan

114

.160

.200

.156

.286

17.8%

20%

Daniel Schneeman

.345

.586

.395

.372

24.1%

54.2%

20.8%

Kyle Manzardo

.310

.552

.366

.300

32.7%

47.4%

15.8%

Bo Naylor

.333

.476

.363

.351

33.3%

57.1%

7.1%

Angel Martinez

.231

.269

.218

.182

20.4%

15%

Brayan Rocchio

.200

.250

.195

.200

36.4%

30.8%

Gabriel Arias

.077

.044

.068

.038

61.3%

33.3%

CJ Kayfus

.250

.315

.283

55.6%

100%

Jhonkensy Noel

.000

42.9%

Austin Hedges

.200

.800

.407

.356

37.5%

33.3%

Petey Halpin*

.250

.233

.251

.346

28%

22.2%

Chase DeLauter*

.000

.099

33.3%

Johnathan Rodriguez*

.000

.088

37.5%

100%

George Valera*

.333

.667

.417

.224

40%

50%

Favorable Matchups:
Jose Ramirez — of course he is, why wouldn’t he be? Ramirez saw a very young Mize in 2020 and gave him a rude welcome to the Majors, smacking a pair of homers off of him. This season, Ramirez has fared well again, tallying three hits in nine plate appearances. Ramirez simply does damage. He’s a favorable matchup against anyone.
Daniel Schneemann — given the…adventures in the outfield yesterday, this feels like an opportune time to get Schnee some run in CF. Schneemann is not only a capable defender, but he has been Cleveland’s best bat against splitters on the season. In a vacuum, he has to play, but he has cratered at the plate in September, so this is not a foregone conclusion.
Bo Naylor — Bo has had the most success against Mize this season, taking him deep back in May, then smacking a go-ahead double against him just two weeks ago. With Hedges catching yesterday, Bo is a near lock to catch Bibee.
CJ Kayfus — Kayfus has been rolling in September, and this matchup feels primed for him to put together a quality game. Kayfus slashed .286/.357/.531 in the final month of the regular season with eight extra-base hits (6 2B, 2 HR) a .385 xwOBA. Kayfus is running a hard hit rate north of 40% (43.2%) with a barrel rate of 8.1%. Simply put, this is a handedness matchup that works into what he does well: hit low to mid 90’s fastball velo, and hunt offspeed at the bottom of the zone. Kayfus roped an RBI single off of Mize on 9/16. He has to be in this lineup.

Don’t Count On Much:
Angel Martinez — he is laboring extensively against RHP, and he flat out does not see splitters well. The tunneling Mize does with his splitter off of his fastball is tailor made for chases, something Martinez does at a near 40% clip.
Kyle Manzardo — Manzo is scuffling like something awful right now. It’s not an elongated slump but more of a long stretch of suboptimal play. We need a sign to know Kyle is still here. He is running an OPS south of .700 over his last 170 PA, and he’s looked overmatched all too often. He is going to hit fourth, he is going to be counted on as Hinch pitches around Jose for the 30th straight game. He has to come through, but he hasn’t consistently delivered in far too long to count on that.
Gabriel Arias — speaking of finding a pulse, Arias ran a wRC+ of 64 from the All-Star Break to the end of the season. While Arias took Mize deep two weeks ago, those swings have been few and far between for him. Arias will see a heavy dosage of the fastball/sinker, slurve combo as one of the maybe two right-handed bats in the lineup, and Arias has the second highest whiff rate on the team with a sub-70% z-contact rate over the last two months.

Shot in the Dark:
Chase DeLauter — no way they start him, right…? …right?

IDEAL LINEUP:
1. LF Steven Kwan
2. C Bo Naylor
3. 3B Jose Ramirez
4. DH Kyle Manzardo
5. RF Chase DeLauter
6. SS Gabriel Arias
7. 1B CJ Kayfus
8. 2B Brayan Rocchio

The key against Mize will be getting him into situations where he has to throw his fastball. With Kwan and Naylor hitting 1-2, you’re putting two of your best hitters at working counts at the top of the order, and if they can work favorable counts against Mize, they will get fastballs to hit. Mize runs just a 22% strikeout rate on the season, and he is prone to losing batters trying to nibble. The idea is getting guys on so they can’t pitch around Jose. Kwan has to be better, but I anticipate a turnaround from him in this one.

PREDICTION: Guards win 5-2, and hopefully we see everybody on Thursday!

Wildcard Game Two Preview: Guardians vs. Casey Mize

Tags: