Mercifully, the Minnesota Twins’ forlorn 2025 season has come to an end. In losing to the Phillies on the final day of the season (thanks, Max Kepler ), the Twins secured the second-highest odds at landing the number one overall pick. Let’s unpack their draft lottery circumstances.
What are the Odds?
The Twins finished with the second-worst record in baseball among teams eligible for the draft lottery. As such, they’ll have a 22.27% chance of landing the top overall pick. The White Sox are in poll position (27.73%) with the Pirates next after Minnesota (16.81%).
There are three teams ineligible for the lottery this season (Rockies, Nationals, Angels). As a reminder, large market or revenue-paying teams (like the Nationals and Angels) are ineligible to receive a lottery pick if they had a lottery pick last year. Revenue-receiving teams (like the Rockies) are ineligible to receive a lottery pick if they had a lottery pick the last two years.
Where Could the Twins Pick?
There’s a finite range of outcomes now. If a team with a bottom-six record is displaced from a lottery pick, they immediately take the first available pick outside the lottery spots (7th overall). The Twins can pick as high as first overall and as low as eighth, in the unlikely scenario that both they and the White Sox are displaced from a lottery pick.
What About the Second Round, and Beyond?
Remember, the lottery only dictates the first six picks. From the second round on, all teams pick in order of record. As such, outside of any compensation picks, the Twins will pick fourth in each round (after the Rockies, White Sox, and Nationals).
When is the Draft Lottery?
The draft lottery occurs in December at the Winter Meetings every year. For 2026, that will put it in the week of December 8th, but the exact date and time have not been announced yet.Â
How Does it Work?
Long story short, via ping pong balls. Each non-postseason team is given a number of four-digit combinations based on its regular-season record. The worse the record, the more combinations you have. A series of four-digit ping pong balls is drawn from a lottery machine. The number drawn corresponds to a team, starting with the first overall pick, and finishing with the sixth overall pick. The remaining non-postseason teams then pick in reverse order of record from picks 7-18.
What’s at Stake?
A lot, both in talent capital and financial capital. This year’s class has a consensus number one prospect (currently), Roch Cholowsky , a shortstop from UCLA. Additionally, the slot value differentials are more disparate at the top of the draft. The slot value for the first pick in 2025 ($11,075,900) is $4,262,300 more than the slot for the eighth overall pick ($6,813,800). That difference is around the value of the 20th overall pick in 2025. It’s enormous. While the Twins may not end up with the first overall pick, maintaining a top-three selection would be a boon to their bonus pool. I’ve simulated the draft lottery ~150 times so far, and the Twins have managed a top-three selection 56% of the time.
What About Other Picks and Money?
The Twins will also have a Comp B pick in 2026 (picks 66-74 in 2025). That will carry a value of somewhere between $1.1 million and $1.4 million. Overall, if the Twins maintain a top-three pick, their bonus pool should be somewhere in the $15-16 million range, giving them one of the highest pools in the class.
Want to read up on some candidates to keep in mind for their first selection in 2026? We’ll preview some of the top prep and college names in the coming weeks at Twins Daily.
Check out our 2025 draft tracker, updated with signing bonsues, scouting reports, news, and much more!