Rather than hand the ball directly to Quinn Priester (who will still, in all likelihood, pitch the majority of the game) Monday, the Brewers announced on Sunday’s off day in Milwaukee that they intend to start left-handed reliever Aaron Ashby in Game 2 of the NLDS. It’s a wrinkle made not only possible, but downright convenient, thanks to the league’s strange new way of starting the Division Series on the same day before shifting them onto different schedules. Though some have wrongly concluded that MLB doesn’t want to contend with the NFL for viewership on Sundays, the league’s real reason for doing this is to preserve the advantage for teams who earn a bye while still staggering the DIvision Series schedule, to avoid totally dark days on the postseason calendar.

Because Game 1 and Game 2 will begin some 55 hours apart, the Brewers can very comfortably turn around Ashby, who got four outs on 16 pitches on Saturday afternoon. They won’t even need to worry about stretching him out a bit, as they often do, if that’s what the circumstances demand. After all, there’s also another off day Tuesday, as the two teams make the arduous journey from Milwaukee to Chicago. The breather after a Game 1 beatdown will do the Cubs and their weary bullpen some good; this is the Brewers’ way of trying to claw back their share of the value in the lacuna.

Ashby has been one of the best relievers in baseball this year. Thwarted in his hopes of returning to starting work this spring when he was sidelined with an oblique strain, the southpaw embraced his role as a multi-inning weapon for Murphy and has utterly dominated opposing batters, leaning mostly on the combination of his uniquely heavy high-slot sinker (approaching 100 miles per hour doesn’t hurt) and 12-to-6 curveball. He’s been good against everybody, but the platoon split is real and worth discussing:

vs. LHH: .193/.299/.241, 29.2% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 82.9 mph exit velocity, -4° launch angle

vs. RHH: .245/.312/.348, 27.5% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate, 91.4 mph exit velocity, 2° launch angle

Typically, the Cubs’ lineup starts with lefty slugger Michael Busch, and in Game 1, lefty Kyle Tucker batted third. Considering each of them and the fact that Ian Happ hits better from the left side, Pat Murphy is choosing to use Ashby to shield Priester from the worst matchups the Cubs offer him. Though the organization has done their best to cast the matter in some doubt, it’s overwhelmingly likely that Priester will take over from Ashby after an inning or so of work. The idea is simply to shift the rollover of the lineup card, from Priester’s perspective, just as that was the Cubs’ hope when they used Andrew Kittredge in fron of Shota Imanaga in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against San Diego.

The big difference is that. in a game laid expansively between two off days, the Brewers don’t need length from Priester; the Cubs did need to find the best possible recipe to get four or five innings out of Imanaga last week. The Brewers might well bullpen this whole game, deploying Ashby and Priester only as the first two in a string of hurlers who appear. They’re not as deep as they were a year or two ago, but Milwaukee has a handful of solid relievers and ways to give Craig Counsell tough choices from a matchup perspective.

In fact, because they’re coming off a long layoff (rather than a three-game playoff series) and have played coy with Ashby as their starter, Milwaukee could even choose to use Jose Quintana in this game, rather than in Game 3 as most have anticipated. It’s very tough to pin down what will happen after Ashby departs, and in fact, that’s almost sure to depend on where the game stands after the first inning or two. Priester is still very, very likely to work multiple frames, but there are several ways the Brewers could cut back against the grain if the Cubs overcommit themselves to their expectation of that.

All things considered, then, there’s a clear best batting order for Counsell to begin Monday night’s game:

Nico Hoerner – 2B

Justin Turner – 1B

Seiya Suzuki – RF

Kyle Tucker – DH

Ian Happ – LF

Carson Kelly – C

Pete Crow-Armstrong – CF

Dansby Swanson – SS

Matt Shaw – 3B

That’s how Chicago should stack things, to best punish the Brewers’ tactic and gain the strategic edge throughout the game. After Jared Koenig‘s recent return to form against righties, Ashby is the lefty arm the team most needs to fear from Milwaukee, and they’re giving the Cubs the luxury of having him locked into the first three batters of the game. That’s an opportunity not to be missed.

Nico Hoerner, Justin Turner and Seiya Suzuki should greet Ashby in the top of the first, with one eye fixed on the Milwaukee bullpen. Yes, this means giving up an at-bat for Busch, which Murphy might regard as a win unto itself. In truth, though, Turner (.276/.330/.429) has been much better than Busch (.207/.274/.368) against lefties this season. Counsell could respond to Murphy’s ploy by sliding Busch down to sixth in the order (going, perhaps, Hoerner—Suzuki—Tucker—Kelly—Happ—Busch—Swanson—Crow-Armstrong—Shaw), daring his former mentor and colleague to keep Ashby around for six or eight batters, but what if Murphy’s plan is to insert Quintana to replace Ashby, after all? In that case, Counsell wouldn’t have gained an at-bat for Busch against a righty. He’d only have stuffed Kelly and his inconsistent bat into the cleanup spot, without gaining enough in return.

Turner should bat in the first, but be subject to a pinch-runner (probably just Busch, but if Counsell really wants to press his luck, he could turn to Kevin Alcántara) if and when he reaches base. Busch can take over in the bottom of the first on defense. and from then on, the Cubs lineup will function roughly as usual, with Hoerner, Busch, Suzuki, and Tucker alternating handedness through the meat of the batting order. Tucker (.269/.365/.461 against lefties this year), of course, is no slouch even against the likes of Ashby. To get to a really good matchup, Murphy would have to stick with Ashby all the way to the eighth batter, Pete Crow-Armstrong. It’s far more likely that he’ll flip to Priester after three or five batters, at which point the Cubs will have forced his hand and given themselves the best possible chance to draw first blood.

Counsell has been so reluctant to actively use his bench that this approach seems as much a no-brainer as using an opener is, in itself. Turner won’t replace Busch (or even Crow-Armstrong) late in games, but it should be a much easier sell to have him take one at-bat at the front end of a long game. He might have a major impact, and once he’s out of the mix, the Cubs will be back to business as usual at the plate.

Monday night will be a barn-burner. The pressure to escape The Ueck with a win is huge; the Cubs will be pressing buttons a bit more eagerly in their own right. The Brewers are trying to bait Counsell into something, and to undermine the excellent production Busch has provided atop the batting order. To catch them overextended and create a counterattack, Counsell has to be willing to shake up his lineup a bit.