The Detroit Tigers have one elimination game victory under their belts already in the postseason. To advance past the Seattle Mariners into the ALCS, they’ll need two more in a row. If you’re not feeling very confident about their chances, you could hardly be blamed. Riley Greene and most of the club’s better hitters just are not getting the job done and there’s no sign of that changing.
However, the Mariners are not feeling too comfortable yet either. Manager Dan Wilson faced a really tough decision heading into Game 4 at Comerica Park on Wednesday. He does not want to lose Game 4 and deal with Tarik Skubal in an elimination game. However bad Tigers fans are feeling now, talk to the Mariners faithful about how they’ll be feeling if they have to beat Skubal again to avoid getting knocked out in their home stadium.
If the Tigers take Game 4, even going back to Seattle the odds do not favor the Mariners in that matchup even with a good starter like George Kirby on the mound. So, would Wilson start George Kirby on four days rest on Wednesday and try to put the Tigers away? Or would he go with depth starter Bryce Miller for a few innings and then try to get the victory with a heavy day of bullpen usage?
It’s a pretty tricky call, but Wilson has decided to start Miller. So the Tigers have the pitching matchup in their favor in Game 4, and certainly in Game 5 when it will be Tarik Skubal vs. George Kirby if they can get to that point.
The Tigers will send Casey Mize to the mound in Game 4, and while the right-hander has pitched well recently and holds a 3.68 ERA at Comerica Park this season, he’s certainly hittable. Mize at home against a bullpen game from the Mariners featuring a pretty poor starting pitcher in Miller is an advantage for the Tigers but not exactly a huge one unless Mize comes through with a really good game. Whether the offense can wake up enough to make it count is another question. Mize isn’t exactly likely to go throw five scoreless frames and turn this over to Kyle Finnegan, Tyler Holton, and Will Vest either. The Tigers have to finally break through, score some early runs, and continuing adding on.
The Tigers best hope in this series was to snatch Game 1 before the Mariners got their postseason sea legs under them, get a dominant start from Skubal en route to a Game 2 victory, and then only need to take one of the next three. It did not play out that way, and the more the Mariners settle into the postseason, the more their high powered offense has loosened up and started doing damage.
The Tigers currently do not resemble the team that stormed out to the best first half in baseball, fighting through a fairly tough strength of schedule in the process. The Tigers haven’t won a home game at Comerica Park since September 6 against the White Sox. The fanbase can hope they’ll snap out of it, because they are better than this as a team, but again, while this comes down to Riley Greene more than anyone, they just don’t have anyone running really hot anywhere in the lineup. Without their most dangerous hitter being dangerous, and none of their other power threats running hot, this is a pretty mediocre lineup.
One could take hope from Game 4’s ninth inning rally, but all that confirms is that they can still hit quality major league pitching, particularly if they get a lefty matchup scenario, if that pitching comes from further down the depth chart. They aren’t going to get that scenario again, certainly not in a close game. However, they can hit Bryce Miller and they are going to have to if they want to extend the series and give themselves a quality chance to win it behind Skubal on Friday.
It also doesn’t help that the Tigers looked sloppy and out of sorts in the field at points in Game 4 either. So far they’ve played cleaner baseball that their postseason opponents, but they gave away a run in the second inning that helped get the Mariners mojo working. A J.P. Crawford single to left moved Robles to third, and Riley Greene threw the ball in to third baseman Zach McKinstry. Inexplicably, McKinstry didn’t cut it off to avoid Crawford taking second with Robles no threat to score. Instead he just ignored the throw as though a bystander. Dillon Dingler had to move up the third base line to corral it and instead let the ball bounce right through the five hole, allowing Robles to race home and beat Jack Flaherty’s throw to Dingler to score the first run of the game. That mistake also got Crawford to second, where he scored on a Randy Arozarena ground ball single up the middle.
Things got a lot worse in the middle innings, but that gift of the extra run was the first real crack in the Tigers defensive and mental armor in the postseason. Flaherty compounded it by getting out of sync and/or shying away from contact which eventually arrived anyway. But as he got wild there wasn’t much choice but to get him out of there in the fourth.
Ultimately, the Tigers walked five hitters and allowed three home runs in this game, so it rapidly developed into something close to a lost cause. But that mistake, coupled with more visible signs of frustration building in the lineup, did not give one a good feeling about a comeback once they were down 4-0 after four.
The Tigers did get to rest their best relievers, so they have that on their side in Game 4. Hinch can go to the bullpen early if needs be and it will be all hands on deck. The one question at hand will be whether Troy Melton is available out of the bullpen on four days rest after starting Game 1. In the Tigers position, expect to see him if he’s needed, though he’s continued to do his best work in his familiar starting role.
As for the Tigers’ offense, A.J. Hinch has tried many things over the last month. Days off, shifting the lineup around to try and set up pinch-hitting matchups, more bunting, even the occasional hit and run have done nothing to dig the Tigers out of this offensive rut. They could try dropping Riley Greene down the order, but what the Tigers really need is some power, and even a struggling Greene remains one of their best power threats. The Tigers bench just doesn’t really have much in the way of options beyond finding spots to pinch-hit Jones. Andy Ibáñez still only hits lefties, though he is a very capable defender at third base. Trey Sweeney has been absolutely lost all season at the plate, and isn’t a good enough defender to get any playing time over Javier Báez at shortstop. Even in a pinch-hit appearance against a right-handed reliever late, you’d prefer Báez.
So in the end they’re most likely going to roll out a very similar lineup with Colt Keith in the DH slot, Jones and switch-hitter Wenceel Pérez as they main pinch-hit options. Putting Kerry Carpenter in the leadoff spot made things uncomfortable for Wilson with a right-handed starter in Gilbert, and that will be even more the case against Miller knowing that he can only use ace lefty Gabe Speier against Carpenter one time. Speier is a pretty match up for just about anyone, but perhaps separately Carpenter and Greene by three or more spots in the lineup ensures that the duo will get an extra at-bat against a right-hander, or that a pretty hittable Caleb Ferguson will have to try his hand again after the Tigers got to him with their bench late in Game 3.
Maybe McKinstry’s struggles at the plate gets Andy Ibáñez a start at third, but otherwise Hinch just doesn’t have many options left with this roster. They’ll be hoping that they can break through the way they did against the Guardians in Game 3 of the Wild Card round as Cleveland’s bullpen got taxed and the Tigers got to see arms like Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith repeatedly.
Mariners closer Andrés Muñoz and top setup man Matt Brash have now pitched three of the last four days against the Tigers. No matter how good they are, that doesn’t bode well for them if Game 4 is a close one with all hands on deck. There’s still a glimmer of hope that the Tigers can flip the script in this series and suddenly put the Mariners behind the eight-ball.
Casey Mize is going to have to give the Tigers a solid enough outing, but obviously this all comes down to the offense. If they’re going to start putting some balls in the seats and doing damage, it has to start now. They are out of time. The Seattle Mariners will be under some pressure as well, because if they lose, suddenly the specter of a Skubal game with everything on the line will stare them right in the face. It’s up to the Tigers to put them in that situation or that’s a wrap for the 2025 season.