For 13 1/2 innings in Detroit, the Seattle Mariners looked like a sure thing for the ALCS.

But the last 4 1/2 innings that transpired at Comerica Park on Wednesday have now introduced a healthy dose of doubt going into a do-or-die Game 5 Friday at T-Mobile Park that Tigers ace Tarik Skubal will start.

Start time set for Mariners’ decisive ALDS Game 5 vs. Tigers

The good news: The Mariners have now won three games this season that Skubal has pitched against them.

The bad news: You’re now hoping the Mariners can beat the reigning AL Cy Young for a fourth time in six months.

Is the good news more good than the bad news is bad? We won’t know until Friday.

But let’s err on the side of optimism, because at least for now we can.

First, how much can the Tigers reasonably expect out of Skubal in Game 5? He threw 107 pitches last Tuesday over 7 2/3 innings in a 2-1 Detroit win over Cleveland in the AL Wild Card round. And then he threw 97 pitches on Sunday in Seattle’s 3-2 win in Game 2 of the ALDS. Yeah, he was on regular rest, and he will be again Friday, but he’s pitched some high-stress innings after making 31 starts in the regular season.

OK, that point was just an appetizer. I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t bite, so let’s just keep going.

Taking a page out of J.P. Crawford’s book, who has talked about being at ease in high-leverage situations at the plate because the pressure is on the pitcher, how do you think Skubal feels going into Game 5? The Seattle U product has a career 3.57 ERA at T-Mobile Park, which isn’t bad, but it’s higher than his career 3.08 ERA and much higher than his AL-leading 2.21 ERA in 2025.

And do you know who’s probably worried about losing for a fourth time to the same team in one year? That might be a tough pill to swallow for a guy who isn’t used to losing all that much. Maybe it’s going to be in his head on Friday.

Finally, let’s look at a piece of precedent from Mariners history – albeit with the shoe being on the other foot – of a team beating a Cy Young-caliber pitcher several times in a year (as one person on social media has pointed out).

In 1997, Randy Johnson went 20-4 with a 2.28 ERA for Seattle to finish second in the AL Cy Young race. But that year, the Mariners lost twice to the Baltimore Orioles in the regular season on days The Big Unit pitched. And when those two teams matched up in the ALDS, the Orioles again beat Johnson twice to take that series.

Sorry to dredge up bad memories, but hopefully it provides some solace during the agonizing wait for Game 5. Sometimes a team just has an ace pitcher’s number.

All signs this season have pointed to the Mariners having an answer for the Tigers when Skubal pitches.

When they’ve done it three times already, what’s one more?

More Seattle Mariners ALDS coverage

• What to know as Seattle Mariners head to deciding Game 5 in ALDS
• What stands out to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi as ALDS goes to a Game 5
• Three observations from Mariners’ Game 4 loss to Tigers
• Three things FOX analyst Adam Wainwright said about the M’s
• Back half of Seattle Mariners’ lineup makes its mark in playoffs