All that starting pitching. All that need on the roster everywhere else.
For a Cincinnati Reds team coming off a rare playoff appearance, an apparent surplus of good-looking rotation pitchers creates a combination of opportunity, risk and perhaps temptation.
Will the perpetually poverty-pleading Reds trade from that surplus to fill their biggest needs of the offseason to help limit the heavy lifting in free agency?
“I wouldn’t say no, but when you trade pitchers you’ve got to go (back)fill them somehow,” team president Nick Krall said. “We all know how it works, where you run out of innings at some point in the season, guys get hurt, things happen.”
Even if the Reds don’t shop any of their pitchers, they have such an apparent redundancy in that position area, that they’ll almost certainly get calls from teams looking for the most valuable commodity in the game.
Consider that even with Zack Littell and swingman Nick Martinez likely departing for free agency, the Reds return from their season-ending rotation two All-Stars (Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott), their top innings eater (Brady Singer) and a lefty who has looked for stretches like the best of the bunch (Nick Lodolo).
Also back are 100-mph rookie Chase Burns, last year’s No. 2 overall draft pick who made a successful eight-start debut this year, and Rhett Lowder, who missed this season with injuries after making a six-start debut (1.17 ERA) in 2024 but is healthy and pitching in the Arizona Fall League.
Two more good young starters are expected back early next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year: lefty Brandon Williamson and right-hander Julian Aguiar.
That’s eight guys for five slots at any given time, not counting depth guys in the system such as Chase Petty.
If this counting game sounds familiar, maybe that’s because the Reds had a similar abundance of young infielders in recent years, eventually becoming a factor in the trade of Jonathan India for Singer last winter.
Krall and general manager Brad Meador caution against assuming a trade from the starting pitching depth will be as beneficial as it might seem or return as much as some might assume.
“It’s really hard to say we’re going to go trade a pitcher – and I’m not sure you’re going to trade a pitcher for offense,” Krall said. “You might end up trading the pitcher for a prospect and then go have to sign the offense (in free agency).
“We’ve got to figure out what makes sense to do a deal.”
Here are a few factors heading into the offseason as the Reds try to build a roster for manager Terry Francona’s second season that gives him a chance to go further than a back-door playoff berth on the final day of the season and quick out in the first round:
Krall said he doesn’t expect to have a payroll budget from ownership for at least a few more weeks. The Reds spent just under $120 million on players this year. If the budget is similar, and if you believe MLBtradrumors.com‘s arbitration salary projections, they might have about $17 million available to add maybe two key players. Maybe more if they shed a player or two from the arb list; maybe less if they make a successful run at bringing closer Emilio Pagán back.Their biggest roster deficits are overall hitting and across-the-board fielding.“We struggled in some (areas) with the offense. We’ve struggled with defense as well,” Krall said. “So we’ve got to improve both aspects of our position players.” Some of that might improvement might come internally, at least offensively, if, say, Matt McLain bounces back or, say, Ke’Bryan Hayes recaptures some of his early-career form. “Some of it might be bringing somebody in from the outside,” Krall said. Specifically, they need more power in the lineup, ideally the kind of 35- or 40-homer threat that can protect Elly De La Cruz and transform the run-production ability of the lineup. “We want somebody who’s going to be able to add to this team,” Krall said. “Would you like more power? Sure. Would you like more defense? Sure. Are you going to get one guy who’s one dimensional and can’t do other things? No. You don’t want to do that.”To add the ideal player(s) in free agency could get expensive quickly.
Exploring what might be available in the trade market for one of the proven starters could be a way to make a sudden impact on a group that already has the Hall of Fame manager for two more seasons and now has a playoff season under its collective belt.
Two-time Opening Day starter Hunter Greene has the recent All-Star track record, 100-mph arm, and cost certainty of three more years (plus club option) on a long-term contract with $42 million guaranteed remaining.
That could make him an especially attractive trade chip. Trading that chip would come with the added benefit that if the Reds weren’t able to land the desired big-league hitter in a Greene deal, they would free up a significant percentage of the payroll to help acquire it in free agency.
“I don’t want to speculate on anybody that’s going to get traded or not traded at this point,” Krall said when asked about Greene. “Because we haven’t had any conversations with other clubs. I don’t know what the needs are out there. I don’t know what people are available as well.”
Regardless of the inevitable conversations the Reds will have with other teams wanting to poach a starter, they clearly plan to proceed with caution.
Coming off lost 2025 seasons, Williamson, Aguiar and Lowder all will be on workload limits next year no matter how healthy and strong they look throughout the season. Even Burns, whose 111 innings (including postseason and minors) was a lifetime high at any level, will have his workload closely monitored, especially after missing a few weeks in August with a flexor strain.
“You’re going to have to manage the innings of a handful of those guys,” Meador said. “You can come up short really fast if you start looking to move pitching.”
But few teams have the kind of depth the Reds seem to have in that coveted position area. And while they’re not looking to rush into the offseason slapping for-sale signs on every Rhett, Nick and Brady in their rotation, it might be the most intriguing storyline of the offseason for this playoff-minded front office.