Will the Twins trade Joe Ryan this offseason? It’s a big question, but I don’t think it’s the pivotal question. In my mind, the calculus for trading Ryan is reasonable, even if the Twins are going to make an effort to contend next year. This is a pretty straightforward sell-high opportunity, with the right-hander coming off a career year and All-Star appearance at age 29.

If the Twins trade Ryan, who’s due less than $6 million next year according to MLBTR projections, it won’t be about money. And while Ryan is a hell of a pitcher who would hurt to lose, I do think the team and rotation could theoretically survive his subtraction and still hold their own next year.

I don’t believe either of those things are true of Pablo López. If he gets traded, it’s about the money, and it’s a sure sign that the Twins are headed to a very dark place next year.

It would obviously be a huge stretch to say that Minnesota collapsed this past season simply because López got hurt, but you can’t deny how uncanny the timing was. On June 3rd, when López injured his shoulder on the much-maligned pitching mound at Sutter Health Park, the Twins were six games above .500, on their way to a 20th win in their last 27 games. Over their next 27 games following the injury they would go 8-19, erasing all progress from their electric month of May, and by the time López returned in September the Twins were 16 games below .500, mired deeply in irrelevance.

Would the Twins have made the playoffs if López didn’t get hurt? No. But I do think the huge drop-off in performance and vibes was reflective in some ways of his absence. López is not only a great pitcher — he posted a 2.74 ERA in the 14 starts he was able to make — but also a natural leader and integral figure in the clubhouse. If Byron Buxton is the heart of this Twins team, López is the brain, and I’m not sure they can survive without either in 2026, let alone both.

It was notable that, in a late-season interview on YouTube, Twins announcer Cory Provus opined specifically that moving López trade — not Ryan — could be the breaking point that compels Buxton to reconsider his no-trade stance. “If the Twins trade Pablo,” Provus said, “then the likelihood of Buxton coming back, I think, drops considerably. That’s on my mind a lot.”

Even drawing back from the on-field and clubhouse implications of a López trade, let’s just take an honest look at the motivations that would drive such a move. López is not a sell-high candidate in the same vein as Ryan. I don’t doubt he would generate significant demand and a solid return, but López just missed half a season due to multiple injuries and he’s going to make twice as much as Ryan over his two remaining years under contract. 

Will these factors scare away big-market contenders looking to make a splash? Hardly, but the recent injuries and price tag are bound to temper the bidding for López relative to Ryan. In my mind, if López gets dealt, it’s merely about finances, because currently he’s on track to earn about a corner of the team’s payroll in 2026.

So that’s where my attention is focused heading into this offseason: Pablo López, the pivot point of the Twins’ short-term future. If he gets traded, it’s a grim omen on its own, not even accounting for the dominoes it’s bound to trigger.

Please don’t trade Pablo. PLEASE don’t trade Byron. Stripped down as it is, this team needs likable characters and a fighting chance.