The starting rotation is the Dodgers’ biggest strength, with its depth even branching out to using capable starters in relief roles in the postseason. It’s the kind of staff that can guide a team through a seven-game series, with a quality starting pitcher going in every game. But there’s a pretty clear choice for the start of the National League Championship Series.

Blake Snell should start Game 1 for the Dodgers on Monday.

Mere minutes after celebrating a series win is not the best time to get a clear answer from a champagne-soaked Dave Roberts about pitching plans four days in advance. But it was fair to ask the question, which specifically on Thursday was if Shohei Ohtani would start Game 1 of the NLCS.

“We’re going to talk about that, but that’s probably the case,” Roberts said Thursday. “But with the off day after Game 2, we don’t know yet.”

Let’s look at the options.

Dodgers since August 1, including postseason

Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 2.25 ERA, 68 IP, 29.6-percent strikeout rate
Blake Snell: 2.20 ERA, 65 1/3 IP, 33.6-percent strikeout rate
Tyler Glasnow: 2.64 ERA, 58 IP, 29-percent strikeout rate
Shohei Ohtani: 3.32 ERA, 38 IP, 36.5-percent strikeout rate
Emmet Sheehan: 2.96 ERA, 51 2/3 IP, 31.7-percent strikeout rate

Ohtani last pitched on Saturday, October 4, in Game 1 against the Phillies. Snell last pitched on Monday, October 6 in Game 2. Both would be more than rested to pitch in Monday’s Game 1 of the NLCS.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched on Wednesday, and will not be used on fewer than five days rest, so he’s out for Game 1 on Monday. Tyler Glasnow pitched Thursday, and would be on four days rest in Game 2 if needed, but he seems more likely for one of the middle games of the NLCS.

The schedule for the NLCS has only two off days over a nine-day span, which over the course of a full series would require two starts on four days rest if using a four-pitcher rotation — in Game 5 and Game 7.

Game 1: Monday, October 13, 4:08 p.m. or 5:08 p.m. PT
Game 2: Tuesday, October 14, 5:08 p.m. PT
Game 3: Thursday, October 16
Game 4: Friday, October 17
Game 5*: Saturday, October 18
Game 6*: Monday, October 20
Game 7*: Tuesday, October 21
*if necessary

The Dodgers could start Ohtani in Game 1 if they want, but there’s been no indication they are willing to start him again on four days rest. So if Ohtani goes in Game 1, he wouldn’t be available for Game 5 next Saturday, necessitating a fifth starter or some sort of hybrid Emmet Sheehan-led bullpen game. Doable, but less than ideal with this rotation, and especially if they’d rather use Sheehan in multiple games in relief during the series.

Snell did not start on four days rest this season, but that was because the Dodgers had a full six-pitcher rotation for the final two months and it wasn’t needed. He pitched seven times on four days rest in 2024 and 11 times in 2023; this wouldn’t be new to him. Starting Snell in Game 1 makes him available in Game 5, keeping the rotation in order.

Ohtani having a dual role adds to the decision calculus here, as the Dodgers need his bat atop the lineup, and it’s occasionally affected when he’s started on the mound. Five of Ohtani’s 14 pitching starts in the regular season came before a Dodgers off day, and Ohtani also sat on August 21 at Coors Field on the day after he pitched, as part of a long stretch of games. The idea in having Ohtani pitch before an off day is lessening any next-day fatigue he might have while batting.

In the nine games Ohtani has batted the day after pitching this season, counting Game 2 of the NLDS, he has six hits in 39 at-bats (.154/.195/.359) with two home runs, a triple, two walks, and 14 strikeouts.

Starting Ohtani in Game 2 would also make him available again for Game 6 on Monday, October 20, which would be on five days rest. The Dodgers were in this situation last year with Yamamoto for the World Series, and started him in Game 2 because he wouldn’t have been able to start both Games 1 and 5. In 2024 the Dodgers only had three starting pitchers and this year’s deck is full so it’s not a one-to-one comparison, but the thinking is the same regarding rest.

The Dodgers could also have Yamamoto start in Game 2 and potentially Game 6, but it really comes down to who they would rather start twice during the series — Ohtani or Yamamoto.

The middle games pose another choice, also regarding rest.

Yamamoto and Glasnow would both be fully rested for Game 3 on Thursday, with the other going in Game 4. But Game 7 would be on Tuesday, October 21, and starting Yamamoto in Game 3 would make him unavailable to start Game 7. Glasnow though could start Game 3 and then again on Game 7 on four days rest if needed. He starts on four days rest once this year and once last year.

Whatever the Dodgers choose, they are still in a much better situation than last October. It’s better to sort out the order of several starting pitchers than trying to figure out when to start the few starters you have available.