The sight of Josh Simpson warming in the Marlins bullpen this season was the equivalent of a tornado siren in the Midwest. With only a few minutes of advance notice, you had to brace for a potential catastrophe.
The Marlins mainly used the rookie left-hander in low-leverage situations, when Simpson’s performance was unlikely to impact the outcome of the game. But there was a notorious exception against the Boston Red Sox on August 15 that made fans question manager Clayton McCullough’s sanity. Simpson was brought in to face the top of Boston’s lineup with the score tied in the bottom of the ninth inning. He threw only two of his 12 pitches for strikes, allowing back-to-back-to-back batters reach safely in a losing effort.
Simpson clung to a spot on the Marlins active roster for more than half of the 2025 season thanks to his handedness and breaking ball shape. Unfortunately, he did not capitalize on the opportunity.
A 32nd-round pick in the 2019 MLB Draft out of Columbia University, Simpson toiled for parts of six seasons in the minors before debuting on June 21. In 31 games with Miami, he pitched to a 7.34 ERA, fifth-worst among the 238 relievers to throw at least 30 innings in 2025. Simpson’s teammate, George Soriano, boasted the worst such mark, finishing the year with an 8.35 ERA.
On the whole, the league hit .272 with an .841 OPS against Simpson. For context, that output mirrors the season of Colorado Rockies All-Star Hunter Goodman, who hit .278 with an .843 OPS. Although Simpson was more effective versus lefties, his control was still an issue and the mistakes that he made in the strike zone were costly—the majority of their hits (seven out of 12) went for extra bases.
With end-of-season roster moves looming, Simpson is in jeopardy of losing his 40-man spot. His closest historical comps may convince the Marlins front office to sever ties.
Only 13 pitchers in MLB’s modern era have appeared in 30 games and posted an ERA of 7.00 or worse in their first season. Colorado’s Ryan Rolison also earned that unwanted distinction in 2025.Â
Of the 11 qualified pitchers who came before Simpson and Rolison, six of them failed to see big league action following their first year. That includes 1953 Chicago Cubs right-hander Tom Simpson, who is seemingly unrelated to Josh.
Marlins fans will remember the one who wound up having the most substantial career—Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly known as “Leo Núñez”). After debuting to the tune of a 7.55 ERA in 2005, he appeared in 308 additional games. From 2009-2011 with the then-Florida Marlins, he pitched to a respectable 3.86 ERA (107 ERA+). Oviedo’s 92 saves ranked ninth among relievers in that span.Â
With that being said, there is ample evidence that Simpson is a better pitcher than his surface-level statistics bely.
This season, Simpson’s ERA was nearly three runs higher than his 4.45 expected ERA (xERA). Per Baseball Savant, his gap between those figures was 17th-largest among the 578 MLB pitchers with at least 50 batted ball events. Simpson’s whiff rate was above average and he induced the second-most grounders on the Marlins staff, trailing only Tyler Phillips.
For the Marlins to take another step forward in 2026, they cannot merely rely on improvement from their internal options. They should be motivated to seek upgrades via the free agent market, particularly to reinforce a bullpen that finished with a 4.28 ERA (22nd in the majors).
In today’s environment, MLB teams churn through more pitchers than ever before, which bodes well for Simpson’s chances of resurfacing in the big leagues. Whether he reports to spring training with the Marlins or another organization, though, the 28-year-old will need to demonstrate that he’s made tangible adjustments.
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