Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
The Padres have a tricky decision on their hands regarding the first base position. With both current first basemen hitting the market, San Diego boasts an abundance of choices.
As the Padres front office gears up for the offseason, a critical decision looms in the field.
Sure, the Padres will have their hands full with the projected departures of Michael King, Dylan Cease, and Robert Suarez. However, the Padres’ decision with their first baseman will be the primary situation to monitor this offseason. The choice won’t just affect the Padres’ offensive outlook. It will be a statement from the Padres front office, and a reflection of San Diego’s philosophy in the first edition of the post-Mike Shildt era.
As mentioned, the Padres aren’t “trapped” in any way. Unlike the desperation search for a left fielder last season, the Padres can pick and choose with different skillsets and different price tags. Two of the options wouldn’t even require a contract, but rather an internal shift. So what are all the options on the table?
Re-Sign Ryan O’Hearn
32 years old, 127 wRC+ in 2025
O’Hearn came over from the Orioles mid-season and faced an interesting predicament. With Gavin Sheets and Luis Arraez occupying the DH and 1B roles, O’Hearn somehow found himself on the bench just weeks after he started for the American League All-Stars. The change in role delayed the lefty slugger from finding a groove, as he was only able to catch fire for a week in August. O’Hearn’s OPS was exactly 100 points higher in Baltimore, where he played just about every day for the O’s.
The Padres have a chance at a “fresh start” with O’Hearn. Although San Diego would need to pay up (about $14 million per year), O’Hearn would hold down first base permanently. With the depth chart cleared, O’Hearn would face no competition for playing time and would finally be able to play a whole season.
Re-signing O’Hearn would be a premium option, because he hits both lefties and righties. An abundance of lefties in the lineup became a concern down the stretch for the Padres. However, clearing the lineup of Luis Arraez while inserting O’Hearn into an everyday role could be the instant fix.
Additionally, signing O’Hearn would signal a clear shift in offensive identity for the entire Padres roster. In this case, San Diego would part ways with the essential “poster boy” for a contact-based lineup. Opting for the power hitter O’Hearn would indicate that the Padres want to drift from that contact-first identity.
Ryan O’Hearn 3 years $36M and we RIDE https://t.co/ebAIp3MCtr pic.twitter.com/UUBEFe22TB
— Padres Burner (@Padres_Burner69) October 6, 2025
Re-Sign Luis Arraez
29 years old, 104 wRC+ in 2025
In the opposite scenario, Luis Arraez would bring his unique skillset back to the Padres. This time, he’d have a fresh opportunity to prove that his masterful contact ability retains value in an era of power hitting. Arraez hit .314 between the Marlins and Padres in 2024, but regressed down to .292 in 2025. Although both numbers are considered elite, Arraez’s profile is magnified because of the fact that he slugged just .392 in both years. Arraez hit only 12 HR across the last two years and relies almost exclusively on singles for his overall production.
Like O’Hearn, Luis Arraez doesn’t warrant a platoon bat to support him, as his splits aren’t very extreme. Arraez hit .262 against lefties, albeit with just eight extra-base hits compared to 32 against righties. Defensively, he would be a downgrade from the value that Ryan O’Hearn provides, as he ranks bottom-10% in outs above average per Baseball Savant.
The primary upside in returning Arraez to the lineup wouldn’t actually be on the field. In comparison to other logical options, Arraez is much cheaper. Although he’ll likely warrant a multi-year deal, it’s shaping out that he could fall into the $11-13 million average annual value (AAV) range. That could make bringing Arraez in on a long-term deal a legitimate option for the Padres.
However, the question still looms: what should the Padres’ new manager do with Arraez? It’s likely that he could play every day, but with two years of regression now on his back, a timeshare could be beneficial. Even if the Padres can get improved production out of Arraez, where should he bat in the lineup? Fernando Tatis Jr. occupied the leadoff spot nearly all of last season, as Arraez was pushed to the two-hole. Arraez laid down more sacrifice bunts than he ever had in a season, and over time, it began to appear as a misuse of one of the best contact hitters in the sport. The Padres would have to utilize Arraez in a better way if he returns to the team.
Luis Arraez answers quickly with a two-run homer to make it a 5-3 game!
? #MLBNShowcase presented by @goodyear pic.twitter.com/4uk2v8ROrE
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 29, 2025
Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
Start Gavin Sheets
29 years old, 111 wRC+ in 2025
The final of the three “simple” options would be to move Gavin Sheets from his LF/DH role to a first-base job. Sheets, who broke out in 2025, would bring instant slug to the Padres without sacrificing any money. The big lefty is under control through 2028 and would provide long-term positional stability.
The main question about this move would be regarding the defensive side of the ball. Sheets played over 100 games at first base across his five MLB seasons, but never specialized. Instead, Sheets has been divided between the corner outfield positions, designated hitter, and first base for really his entire career.
Committing to Sheets at first base early in the offseason could reap the benefits of improved defense. With months of preparation and consistency at the position, Sheets is bound to improve at least marginally as a defender. His large frame offers a natural advantage and covers nicely for his faults of speed and quickness.
There would be discussion around acquiring a platoon bat to at least give Sheets days off, but the lefty showed that he’s more than capable of holding his own. He hit .255 against southpaws in 2025, indicating that he could maintain a high floor as an everyday first baseman.
Unfortunately, the exit velocity wasn’t recorded on this double from Gavin Sheets
However, he swung at 86.1 MPH (!!!), the hardest swing by any batter today
He appeared to make perfect contact, leaving us to wonder, how close did he get to 120 MPH?pic.twitter.com/NWTmHN6e6g
— High Leverage Baseball (@HighLevBaseball) April 1, 2025
Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
Start Jake Cronenworth
31 years old, 117 wRC+ in 2025
In a different light, the Padres could pursue an unorthodox route by moving Jake Cronenworth to first base. Cronenworth has almost 300 games of first base under his belt, and played an above-average first base in 2023. Although not super visible in the basic stats (.246 AVG, 11 HR), Cronenworth’s on-base ability paved the way to a productive 2025 season.
Now, the catch to moving Cronenworth over to first base would be a new hole at second base. San Diego would need to actively pursue a second baseman either via the trade market or free agency. A plus side to this would be increased flexibility on the free agent market. A deeper class of players with more balanced talent allows for more affordable targets such as Jorge Polanco and Ozzie Albies.
Cronenworth’s offensive profile wouldn’t be overwhelming, but he’d bring a good balance of both setting the table and cleaning it up. His 13.4% walk rate ranks among the highest in the league, and he pairs it with great bat-to-ball skills. His advanced profile suggests that he could have produced even more than he did this season. Cronenworth posted a near-identical batting average and on-base percentage against lefties and righties, further adding to the feasibility of the possibility.
Jake Cronenworth’s left-on-left homer:
101.7 MPH
34° LA
381 FT
.579 xBA
HR in 29/30 Ballparks
Great to see Cronenworth barrel up a left-hander. He slugged just .255 vs. LHP last season, down all the way from .433 in 2021.
He could be an X-factor this season#ForTheFaithful pic.twitter.com/XeGlM8JVF6
— High Leverage Baseball (@HighLevBaseball) March 29, 2025
Credit: AP Photo
Sign Josh Naylor
28 years old, 128 wRC+ in 2025
Lastly, the grandest of the options would be to make a splash on the market and pick up an elite, modernized first baseman in Josh Naylor. Naylor boasts a truly intriguing package of elite contact, power, and baserunning ability. Now, the 5-foot-10-inch, 235-lb lefty doesn’t have blazing speed— he actually falls into the third percentile of sprint speed on Baseball Savant. His 30 (yes, 30) stolen bases are a testament to his understanding of the game and competitive nature.
Although Naylor is average defensively, he makes it all up at the plate. He hit .295 with 20 homers, finishing with a top-notch .815 OPS in the regular season of 2025. Naylor’s impressive 13.7% strikeout rate is not derived from his bat-to-ball skills. He chases pitches at a monstrous 37.1% clip but manages to avoid strikeouts with, again, his elite hitting IQ and competitiveness.
Naylor is well-equipped with playoff experience, as he’s reached the ALCS in back-to-back seasons. He’s been a part of numerous unexpectedly successful teams and appears to be a good fit for a Padres team with an underdog mentality. He’d take on a leadership role, especially with the state of the clubhouse where it is. If the Padres want to go find a season-changing player on the market, Naylor is their guy.
Hopefully, Naylor can bring his dynamic skillset directly into the top half of the Padres order. His ability to manufacture offense in numerous ways could help the Padres take the next step offensively. While O’Hearn’s power and contact combination certainly fit the mold, Naylor would be an instant upgrade. The only downside would be a higher price that could increase as the Mariners progress in the playoffs.
they said josh naylor couldn’t hit in the playoffs
THEY SAID ? pic.twitter.com/R2dn1TbOBA
— gabb (@gabbgoudy) October 13, 2025
A 17-year-old San Diego native, Willy Warren is a baseball fan at heart who created High Leverage Baseball, a public baseball media account covering around-the-league statistical analysis and breakdowns on X. Willy is set to attend the Cronkite School of Journalism in the fall of 2026 at Arizona State University, where he’ll pursue a major in sports journalism.
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