Bill Shanks
| Special to the Savannah Morning News
If you know the Braves injury history with starting pitchers during the 2020s, you probably cringed last Wednesday night when Chris Sale dove for a ball in the ninth inning against the Mets. Nothing seemed wrong, at least until Saturday.
That’s when the news broke: Sale broke a rib during that play and immediately went on the injured list. Most believe he will be out at least 4-6 weeks.
So, just like that, the Atlanta pitcher once again looking like a Cy Young candidate, is gone maybe until August.
Sale is not the first, just the latest to get hurt. The list is long, so much so you wonder if Topps should stop putting stats on the back of baseball cards, and include injury histories, as well.
This season has not been easy for the Braves, in more ways than one. While lackluster hitting is what has the team under .500, pitching injuries have not helped. And, now with Sale out, you wonder what it will take to survive the rest of the season.
Five Atlanta pitchers are currently on the injured list. Sale joins starters Reynaldo Lopez, who had shoulder surgery April 8, and AJ Smith-Shawver, who had season-ending elbow surgery June 9. Joe Jimenez, last year’s top setup man in the Atlanta bullpen, had knee surgery last October 29 and may not pitch this season. Daysbel Hernandez, the reliever the Braves hoped would replace Jimenez, went down June 5 with right forearm inflammation.
Even after coming back from elbow surgery in mid-April, Spencer Strider strained his hamstring five days later and missed a month. Strider had missed a full season, pitched one time in coming back, and then was back on the injured list just like that.
If it’s not been one thing, it’s been another for the Atlanta pitchers. And this has been the unfortunate theme for this team throughout the 2020s. It has just not been easy for the Braves pitchers to stay healthy.
In the first four full seasons in this decade for the Braves, only eight pitchers have made 30 or more starts in a season. And half of those four pitchers were either unavailable for the postseason, not 100-percent for the postseason or got hurt during the postseason.
Only eight pitchers have started 30 or more games in a season for the Braves during this decade. Spencer Schwellenbach and Grant Holmes are the two this year on pace to reach that mark, but you have to wonder if they can do it. And even if they make 30 regular season starts, can they be healthy for the postseason?
Let’s look at the injuries that have plagued the Braves starting pitchers the last few seasons.
2024
The trauma started after the sixth game of the regular season, when after two starts, Strider had elbow soreness. Since he had Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery in 2019 while at Clemson, Strider decided to have the internal brace procedure to get him back sooner. But someone who was being touted as a Cy Young candidate made only two starts in 2024.
Lopez, who moved from the bullpen back to a rotation for the first time in three years, had two stints on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. That might have been signs for what happened this year.
Max Fried missed three weeks with left forearm neuritis, and even in his postseason start in San Diego, Fried took a line drive on his backside from Fernando Tatis that knocked him out of the game.
Smith-Shawver missed nearly two months with a strained oblique after he made his first Atlanta start in May, and then when he returned, he spent the remaining two months in Triple-A. But then when the Atlanta rotation was so stressed, the Braves turned to Smith-Shawver to pitch in one of the two playoff games in San Diego.
And after rookie Hurston Waldrep made his first two MLB starts in June, he missed a month with elbow inflammation.
2023
On Opening Day, Fried strained his hamstring and missed two weeks. After four starts back, Fried then developed elbow inflammation and missed three months. Finally, the dreaded Fried blister returned and he missed the final 10 days of the regular season.
Charlie Morton tore a ligament in his finger on his pitching hand in his last regular season start. Morton was unavailable to pitch in the playoff series with Philadelphia.
Ian Anderson didn’t make the team out of spring training, and after a few mediocre starts in Triple-A, had Tommy John surgery. Anderson, back in Triple-A Gwinnett now after a short stint with the Angels, has not been effective since having the elbow operation.
Kyle Wright, who was spectacular in 2022 with a 21-5 record and a 3.19 ERA in 30 starts, developed shoulder issues. Wright made only seven starts in 2023 and wound up having surgery and was traded to Kansas City. He’s not pitched in the big leagues since his surgery.
Michael Soroka had a hamstring injury and then forearm inflammation. Soroka made only six starts and was traded to the White Sox after the season.
2022
After Anderson had a great World Series start for the Braves against the Astros, he struggled in 2022 with what would likely be due to the elbow issue that has derailed his career. Anderson made just 22 starts in 2022 and had an ERA of 5.00. The Braves sent him to Triple-A to finish the season.
The trouble really happened at the end of the season. Fried got a virus in September and lost (at least) 10 pounds. His stuff was average and his stamina was worse in his playoff game against the Phillies.
And Strider strained his oblique in mid-September. The Braves tried to rest him for the postseason, but he lasted only 2.2 innings against the Phillies as his velocity dipped with every pitch.
2021
Remember in the second inning of Game 1 of the World Series in Houston when Charlie Morton broke his right leg on a comebacker off the bat of Yuli Gurriel? Yeah, well, they won that game and the Series so it was a forgettable play. But it happened.
Huascar Ynoa was showing he could be a viable member of the rotation (3.09 ERA in eight starts), but in a game in Milwaukee in mid-May, Ynoa punched a pad in the dugout and broke his pitching hand. Ynoa missed three months and has really never been the same since.
Soroka tore his right Achilles for the second time on June 24, derailing any hope of him returning that season.
Left-hander Tucker Davidson had made three good starts (1.53 ERA) and then developed forearm tightness, which ended his season.
2020
Soroka originally tore his Achilles on August 3 in the COVID-shortened season. After being an All-Star and Cy Young finalist in his rookie season in 2019, Soroka’s series of injuries have never allowed a return to his original form.
The Braves big free agent signing for 2020 was veteran left-handed Cole Hamels, but he had shoulder issues in spring training and would make only one start the entire season ― on September 16 in Baltimore. The Braves paid Hamels $6.67 million for his 3 1/3 innings of work.
What’s left for 2025?
So now, with Sale out, the Braves must plot their course for the second half of the season (which starts this Saturday). If they are to get back over .500 and get back in the race, they’re going to have to hit better. But make no mistake about it, the pitching will still be a key for this team.
Despite an unusual tough start to his season, Sale had a 1.41 ERA in his last 11 starts and had lowered his ERA to 2.52. Sale’s always showed that when he’s healthy, he’s one of the best pitchers in the sport. But now, his absence will be hard to compensate for the next several weeks.
Ironically, the Braves had brought up 20-year-old Didier Fuentes to start Friday to give the starters an extra day of rest ― something done now by teams to help get their starters through a full, 162-game season. Didier was very impressive, and while he might need more time in the minor leagues for further development, the Braves all-of-a-sudden need Fuentes to be in the Atlanta rotation.
The Braves have gone from Sale, Lopez, Schwellenbach, Smith-Shawver and Holmes in the Opening Day rotation to Schwellenbach, Strider, Holmes, Fuentes and Bryce Elder. There is no guarantee Lopez will return, and you have to wonder if the Braves might instead put Lopez in the bullpen instead of the rotation if he does get back.
Schwellenbach has been outstanding. He had a couple of bad starts in mid-April and early-May, but in his last eight starts Schwellenbach has an ERA of 2.72. Strider seems to be getting better by the start, with an ERA of 2.00 in his last three games and an obvious increase in velocity with his vaunted fastball.
Holmes and Elder are two question marks. While Holmes has shocked everyone not named general manager Alex Anthopoulos, every inning he throws adds to the most he’s thrown in one MLB season. Holmes has a 2.96 ERA in his last eight starts, but you have to wonder if he can still be pitching like this in late-August and into September.
Elder has been more like he was in 2023 when he was an All-Star compared to his lackluster 10-game stint in Atlanta last season (6.52 ERA). But Elder is more of a bottom-of-a-rotation starter, so the Braves have to worry how much they can get out of him the rest of the season.
Maybe Sale can return and pitch like he was before his injury. Maybe Schwellenbach and Strider can lead the way. Maybe Holmes and Elder can last the full six-month season. And maybe Fuentes will at least be okay as the last (young) man in the rotation.
Or maybe all of this will force Anthopoulos to get another starting pitcher before the July 31 trade deadline. Considering all that has happened this decade to the Atlanta starting pitchers, Anthopoulos may not have a choice. Along with getting another hitter (or two), and another setup man (or two) for the bullpen, Sale’s injury has created a need for more starting pitching.
Since, as they always say, you can never have enough pitching.
Listen to The Bill Shanks Show weekdays at 3:00 pm ET on 104.3 FM in Savannah and online at TheSuperStations.com. Email Bill at thebillshanksshow@yahoo.com.